🔥 Strikeout Projections

#	Pitcher	Team	Matchup	K%	opp K%	proj K	o4.5	o5.5	o6.5
1	Chris Sale	ATL	@CWS	29%	24%	7.0	83%	70%	55%
2	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	@PIT	29%	24%	6.5	78%	63%	47%
3	Reid Detmers	LAA	vs HOU	28%	22%	6.2	75%	59%	43%
4	Parker Messick	CLE	vs NYY	26%	23%	5.9	70%	54%	38%
5	Shota Imanaga	CHC	@COL	24%	24%	5.8	69%	53%	37%
6	Michael King	SD	vs CIN	23%	25%	5.7	68%	51%	35%
7	Peter Lambert	HOU	@LAA	22%	25%	5.7	67%	51%	35%
8	George Kirby	SEA	@BAL	20%	23%	5.2	60%	42%	27%
9	Jesús Luzardo	PHI	@TOR	26%	19%	5.2	59%	42%	26%
10	Drew Rasmussen	TB	vs BOS	25%	22%	5.1	58%	41%	26%
11	MacKenzie Gore	TEX	@KC	25%	21%	5.1	57%	40%	25%
12	Seth Lugo	KC	vs TEX	20%	23%	5.1	57%	40%	25%
13	Jack Perkins	ATH	vs MIL	27%	21%	5.0	56%	39%	24%
14	Foster Griffin	WSH	@SF	23%	21%	4.9	55%	37%	23%
15	Framber Valdez	DET	vs MIN	19%	23%	4.8	52%	35%	21%
16	Carlos Rodón	NYY	@CLE	26%	21%	4.8	52%	35%	21%
17	Brandon Sproat	MIL	@ATH	22%	22%	4.8	52%	34%	21%
18	Robbie Ray	SF	vs WSH	22%	21%	4.7	51%	33%	20%
19	Brandon Young	BAL	vs SEA	17%	23%	4.5	47%	30%	17%
20	Jared Jones	PIT	vs LAD	24%	20%	4.5	47%	29%	17%
21	Andre Pallante	STL	@NYM	19%	22%	4.4	45%	28%	16%
22	Ryne Nelson	AZ	@MIA	18%	22%	4.4	45%	28%	16%
23	Brady Singer	CIN	@SD	16%	23%	4.1	38%	23%	12%
24	Austin Warren	NYM	vs STL	25%	21%	4.0	36%	21%	11%
25	Ryan Gusto	MIA	vs AZ	21%	20%	3.8	33%	19%	9%
26	Michael Lorenzen	COL	vs CHC	16%	21%	3.8	33%	18%	9%
27	Jake Bennett	BOS	@TB	10%	19%	3.5	27%	14%	6%
28	Max Scherzer	TOR	vs PHI	12%	23%	3.4	25%	13%	6%

projK = projected strikeouts; o4.5/o5.5/o6.5 = P(over that line). Backtested: MAE 1.85 (beats baselines), proj/actual corr 0.39, O/U-5.5 62% — the most reliable model here, though the 62% is vs a fixed line, not the book's, so real edge is smaller. Research tool, not betting advice.