Graded vs actual results. Picks are locked in before games, so there's no hindsight.
⚾ MLB
Previous day — 2026-09-10
🎯 Best Bets: 1/2 = 50%
🏏 Hits top-6: 5/6 = 83%
🔥 Strikeouts O/U-5.5: 80% (10 starts)
Last 5 days
🎯 Best Bets: 13/19 = 68%
🏏 Hits top-6: 24/29 = 83%
🔥 Strikeouts O/U-5.5: 69% (121 starts)
🏀 WNBA
Previous day — 2026-07-30
🎯 Best Bets: 5/7 = 71%
Last 5 days
🎯 Best Bets: 37/50 = 74%
No jargon — here's what every word on this site means.
Hit prop — A bet on whether a batter gets at least one hit in the game.
Strikeout over/under — A bet on how many batters a pitcher strikes out — “over 5.5” means we think he gets 6 or more.
NRFI — “No Runs First Inning” — a bet that neither team scores in inning 1.
Player prop (WNBA) — A bet on one player's stat — her points, rebounds, or assists.
Model % — Our computer's estimate of how likely the pick is to hit. Higher = more confident.
Edge — How much better our number is than the betting market's number. Bigger edge = better bet.
EV (expected value) — Whether a bet makes money on average. Positive EV = profitable long-term; negative = you lose over time even if it sometimes wins.
No-vig price — The market's true odds after removing the sportsbook's built-in fee. It's the fair number we compare ours against.
Best Bet — A pick we only flag when the math says it actually beats the price — not just when the model likes it.
Units / Kelly — A unit is one standard bet size. Bigger edges get a bigger unit stake; thin edges get a small one. It keeps any single bet from being reckless.
CLV (closing line value) — Did we get a better price than where the line ended up? Beating the close is the best sign a pick had real value.