⚾ NRFI Dashboard

2026-06-10 · 15 games · updated 2026-06-10
🏏 Hits ›🔥 Strikeouts ›
🟢 Strongest NRFI lean: NYY @ CLE 68%
🔴 Strongest YRFI lean: MIL @ ATH 73%
NYY @ CLE NRFI LEAN
Progressive Field · park 100
68%
NRFI lean
32%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 53% NRFI (no proven edge)
Model leans NRFI (68% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 53% NRFI.
  • Carlos Rodón (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 33% over 5 starts (league ~27%).
  • Parker Messick (home SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 9% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: New York Yankees score in the 1st 20% of games (n=22), Cleveland Guardians 22% (n=24).
  • Weather at first pitch: 80F, wind 10mph.
WSH @ SF NRFI LEAN
Oracle Park · park 95
57%
NRFI lean
43%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 50% NRFI (no proven edge)
Model leans NRFI (57% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 50% NRFI.
  • Foster Griffin (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 24% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • Robbie Ray (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 24% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Washington Nationals score in the 1st 25% of games (n=25), San Francisco Giants 31% (n=25).
  • Pitcher-friendly park (factor 95) nudges toward NRFI.
  • Weather at first pitch: 80F, wind 8mph.
CIN @ SD NRFI LEAN
Petco Park · park 96
55%
NRFI lean
45%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 50% NRFI (no proven edge)
Model leans NRFI (55% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 50% NRFI.
  • Brady Singer (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 48% over 12 starts (league ~27%).
  • Michael King (home SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 14% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Cincinnati Reds score in the 1st 19% of games (n=24), San Diego Padres 21% (n=25).
  • Pitcher-friendly park (factor 96) nudges toward NRFI.
  • Weather at first pitch: 73F, wind 9mph.
HOU @ LAA NO EDGE
Angel Stadium · park 100
54%
NRFI lean
46%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 50% NRFI (no proven edge)
Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 50% NRFI.
  • Peter Lambert (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 24% over 9 starts (league ~27%).
  • Reid Detmers (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 24% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Houston Astros score in the 1st 31% of games (n=25), Los Angeles Angels 28% (n=25).
  • Weather at first pitch: 75F, wind 8mph.
PHI @ TOR NO EDGE
Rogers Centre · park 100
51%
NRFI lean
49%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 49% NRFI (no proven edge)
Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 49% NRFI.
  • Jesús Luzardo (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 14% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • Max Scherzer (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 42% over 5 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Philadelphia Phillies score in the 1st 28% of games (n=25), Toronto Blue Jays 21% (n=25).
  • Indoor/closed roof — weather neutral.
BOS @ TB NO EDGE
Tropicana Field · park 96
49%
NRFI lean
51%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 49% NRFI (no proven edge)
Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 49% NRFI.
  • Jake Bennett (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 20% over 2 starts (league ~27%).
  • Drew Rasmussen (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 26% over 12 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Boston Red Sox score in the 1st 25% of games (n=24), Tampa Bay Rays 45% (n=24).
  • Pitcher-friendly park (factor 96) nudges toward NRFI.
  • Indoor/closed roof — weather neutral.
AZ @ MIA NO EDGE
loanDepot park · park 100
49%
NRFI lean
51%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 49% NRFI (no proven edge)
Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 49% NRFI.
  • Ryne Nelson (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 19% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • Ryan Gusto (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 37% over 1 start (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Arizona Diamondbacks score in the 1st 28% of games (n=25), Miami Marlins 28% (n=25).
  • Indoor/closed roof — weather neutral.
LAD @ PIT NO EDGE
PNC Park · park 100
49%
NRFI lean
51%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 49% NRFI (no proven edge)
Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 49% NRFI.
  • Shohei Ohtani (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 10% over 10 starts (league ~27%).
  • Jared Jones (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 33% over 2 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Los Angeles Dodgers score in the 1st 34% of games (n=25), Pittsburgh Pirates 37% (n=25).
  • Weather at first pitch: 91F, wind 12mph.
ATL @ CWS NO EDGE
Rate Field · park 100
47%
NRFI lean
53%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 48% NRFI (no proven edge)
Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 48% NRFI.
  • Chris Sale (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 20% over 12 starts (league ~27%).
  • ⚠️ TBD (home SP): no starts logged yet — using league average (~27%). Low confidence.
  • 1st-inning offense: Atlanta Braves score in the 1st 37% of games (n=25), Chicago White Sox 31% (n=25).
  • Weather at first pitch: 92F, wind 16mph.
CHC @ COL NO EDGE
Coors Field · park 115
46%
NRFI lean
54%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 48% NRFI (no proven edge)
Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 48% NRFI.
  • Shota Imanaga (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 30% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • Michael Lorenzen (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 24% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Chicago Cubs score in the 1st 21% of games (n=25), Colorado Rockies 34% (n=25).
  • Hitter-friendly park (factor 115) nudges toward YRFI.
  • Weather at first pitch: 88F, wind 12mph.
STL @ NYM NO EDGE
Citi Field · park 100
46%
NRFI lean
54%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 48% NRFI (no proven edge)
Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 48% NRFI.
  • Andre Pallante (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 42% over 12 starts (league ~27%).
  • Austin Warren (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 23% over 1 start (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: St. Louis Cardinals score in the 1st 22% of games (n=24), New York Mets 28% (n=25).
  • Weather at first pitch: 77F, wind 9mph.
SEA @ BAL YRFI LEAN
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · park 100
41%
NRFI lean
59%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 47% NRFI (no proven edge)
Model leans YRFI (59% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 47% NRFI.
  • George Kirby (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 35% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • Brandon Young (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 31% over 9 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Seattle Mariners score in the 1st 34% of games (n=25), Baltimore Orioles 25% (n=25).
  • Weather at first pitch: 77F, wind 11mph.
MIN @ DET YRFI LEAN
Comerica Park · park 97
34%
NRFI lean
66%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 46% NRFI (no proven edge)
Model leans YRFI (66% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 46% NRFI.
  • ⚠️ TBD (away SP): no starts logged yet — using league average (~27%). Low confidence.
  • Framber Valdez (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 35% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Minnesota Twins score in the 1st 34% of games (n=25), Detroit Tigers 41% (n=25).
  • Pitcher-friendly park (factor 97) nudges toward NRFI.
  • Weather at first pitch: 89F, wind 5mph.
TEX @ KC YRFI LEAN
Kauffman Stadium · park 100
32%
NRFI lean
68%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 45% NRFI (no proven edge)
Model leans YRFI (68% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 45% NRFI.
  • MacKenzie Gore (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 30% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • Seth Lugo (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 40% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Texas Rangers score in the 1st 31% of games (n=25), Kansas City Royals 37% (n=25).
  • Weather at first pitch: 90F, wind 22mph.
MIL @ ATH YRFI LEAN
Las Vegas Ballpark · park 100
27%
NRFI lean
73%
YRFI lean
honest calibrated estimate: 44% NRFI (no proven edge)
Model leans YRFI (73% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 44% NRFI.
  • Brandon Sproat (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 29% over 10 starts (league ~27%).
  • Jack Perkins (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 37% over 1 start (league ~27%).
  • 1st-inning offense: Milwaukee Brewers score in the 1st 44% of games (n=25), Athletics 37% (n=25).
Read this: the big % are the raw model lean (ranking only). Out-of-sample backtesting shows these are over-confident — the calibrated estimate (≈50%) is honest, and the model does not beat a typical NRFI price. Research screen, not betting advice. ⚠️ = low sample.