🏀 WNBA — Props & Consistency

✔ UPDATEDOct 26, 2026 at 5:33 PM CTfresh lines, lineups & odds

💰 +EV 🎯 Best Bets 🏀 Props 🎯 Consistency 📊 Accuracy ⭐ Tommy's Players

💰 +EV Best Bets

No Best Bets had a matching market line today.

🎯 WNBA BEST BETS — highest-confidence overs

Rhyne Howard

G · Dream @ Valkyries · Away

62% AST over 1.5

hit 83% of games this season

projecting 2.7 AST @GS (season 3.6, last-5 2.2); cleared 1.5 in 83% of games this year.

Angel Reese

F · Dream @ Valkyries · Away

61% AST over 1.5

hit 80% of games this season

projecting 2.5 AST @GS (season 2.6, last-5 2.4); cleared 1.5 in 80% of games this year.

Tiffany Hayes

G · Valkyries vs Dream · Home

61% AST over 1.5

hit 70% of games this season

projecting 2.4 AST vs ATL (season 2.5, last-5 2.4); cleared 1.5 in 70% of games this year.

🏀 Tonight's Player Props

Top 15 by projected points (of 16 rotation players) · projected points, rebounds, assists

#	Player	Pos	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Min	PTS	REB	AST	P+R+A	3PM	Best Over
1	Angel Reese	F	Dream	Valkyries	Away	31	16.2 L5 19.0	11.6 L5 11.6	2.5 L5 2.4	28.8 L5 33.0	0.7 L5 1.0	AST o1.5 61%
2	Gabby Williams	F	Valkyries	Dream	Home	26	16.1 L5 17.6	2.9 L5 2.6	3.1 L5 3.4	21.9 L5 23.6	1.6 L5 1.4	PTS o13.5 58%
3	Rhyne Howard	G	Dream	Valkyries	Away	34	14.0 L5 14.6	4.3 L5 4.6	2.7 L5 2.2	20.4 L5 21.4	2.3 L5 2.0	AST o1.5 62%
4	Allisha Gray	G	Dream	Valkyries	Away	31	12.6 L5 11.4	3.6 L5 3.8	2.0 L5 1.8	17.7 L5 17.0	1.3 L5 1.0	P+R+A o14.5 58%
5	Jordin Canada	G	Dream	Valkyries	Away	31	10.8 L5 12.0	4.0 L5 4.4	7.7 L5 8.0	21.3 L5 24.4	0.8 L5 0.6	AST o6.5 58%
6	Tiffany Hayes	G	Valkyries	Dream	Home	18	10.0 L5 11.0	3.5 L5 4.4	2.4 L5 2.4	15.7 L5 17.8	0.6 L5 0.6	AST o1.5 61%
7	Veronica Burton	G	Valkyries	Dream	Home	29	9.1 L5 8.0	4.1 L5 4.4	4.3 L5 3.6	17.1 L5 16.0	1.2 L5 1.0	P+R+A o14.5 58%
8	Cecilia Zandalasini	F	Valkyries	Dream	Home	19	8.3 L5 8.6	1.5 L5 1.2	1.1 L5 0.8	10.8 L5 10.6	1.5 L5 1.6	—
9	DeWanna Bonner	F	Dream	Valkyries	Away	22	7.1 L5 7.0	4.9 L5 4.6	0.8 L5 0.4	12.3 L5 12.0	0.6 L5 0.4	REB o3.5 59%
10	Brionna Jones	F	Dream	Valkyries	Away	17	7.0 L5 7.4	4.9 L5 4.4	2.2 L5 2.4	13.3 L5 14.2	0.2 L5 0.2	AST o1.5 58%
11	Janelle Salaun	F	Valkyries	Dream	Home	20	6.3 L5 3.6	1.8 L5 0.8	0.4 L5 0.0	8.4 L5 4.4	1.3 L5 0.8	—
12	Naz Hillmon	F	Dream	Valkyries	Away	29	6.0 L5 5.6	4.3 L5 4.2	1.1 L5 0.8	10.9 L5 10.6	0.9 L5 0.8	REB o3.5 58%
13	Kaila Charles	G	Valkyries	Dream	Home	21	6.0 L5 6.2	5.1 L5 5.4	1.0 L5 0.8	11.8 L5 12.4	0.9 L5 1.0	REB o4.5 56%
14	Kayla Thornton	F	Valkyries	Dream	Home	24	5.6 L5 4.6	4.4 L5 4.4	0.4 L5 0.2	10.2 L5 9.2	0.9 L5 0.6	REB o3.5 57%
15	Kaitlyn Chen	G	Valkyries	Dream	Home	15	5.0 L5 4.2	0.8 L5 0.6	1.7 L5 1.6	7.5 L5 6.4	0.4 L5 0.2	AST o1.5 55%

Each stat shows tonight's projection with the player's last-5-game average (L5) beneath it, for points, rebounds, assists, and P+R+A. Projections weight last-5 form over season average and adjust scoring for the opponent's points-allowed. Best Over = the highest standard line the projection clears with a real edge; % is the model's P(over). Assumes the player is active and plays her usual minutes — injuries, rest, and blowouts are NOT modeled, so confirm she's in before betting. Backtest (197 walk-forward player-games, 2026, no lookahead): over-picks at P≥60% won ≈60% (95% CI 56–64%, beats the 52.4% break-even); the narrower P≥68% tier won ≈58% but its CI just touches break-even. Two honest limits — the projection barely beats a season-average baseline, and the % are roughly (not precisely) calibrated, so higher confidence ≠ reliably higher win rate. AST & P+R+A graded best; REB overs were over-confident. Edge is vs fixed lines, not the book's. Small early-season sample. Research tool, not betting advice.

🎯 Scoring Consistency — the 'Otto Lopez' types

Steadiest scorers on tonight's slate (up to 12 per category), ranked by how STEADY they are game-to-game (games under 20 min dropped). CV = std ÷ mean — lower = more consistent = a safer prop target. Confidence = a 0-100% 'how safe a target' score blending steadiness (low CV), floor reliability (how often they hit near their average), and sample size. Higher = safer.

Points (headline)

#	Player	Team	Mean	Std	CV ↓	Confidence	Range	G
1	Tiffany Hayes	GS	13.0	3.6	27.9%	76%	3–19	20
2	Allisha Gray	ATL	18.6	6.0	32.1%	72%	5–32	50
3	Angel Reese	ATL	16.9	5.8	34.4%	68%	7–31	51
4	Rhyne Howard	ATL	17.5	6.5	36.8%	65%	5–36	52
5	Gabby Williams	GS	16.8	6.4	38.1%	68%	5–36	42
6	Kaitlyn Chen	GS	11.8	4.7	39.8%	68%	2–20	17
7	Jordin Canada	ATL	12.2	5.0	41.1%	64%	3–25	52
8	Cecilia Zandalasini	GS	12.3	5.2	41.9%	57%	5–23	18
9	Veronica Burton	GS	11.9	5.1	42.4%	62%	3–25	50
10	Janelle Salaun	GS	13.5	5.7	42.5%	65%	3–26	31
11	DeWanna Bonner	ATL	11.7	5.0	42.7%	56%	4–23	11
12	Kaila Charles	GS	8.6	3.8	44.6%	60%	2–16	27

Rebounds

#	Player	Team	Mean	Std	CV ↓	Confidence	Range	G
1	Angel Reese	ATL	11.9	3.6	30.1%	72%	5–26	51
2	Kaila Charles	GS	5.9	2.5	42.1%	67%	1–12	27
3	Kaitlyn Chen	GS	1.8	0.8	42.6%	58%	1–3	17
4	Kiah Stokes	GS	7.3	3.2	44.2%	59%	3–16	42
5	Naz Hillmon	ATL	4.6	2.1	45.5%	60%	1–9	49
6	Janelle Salaun	GS	4.1	1.9	46.3%	57%	1–7	31
7	Tiffany Hayes	GS	3.9	1.9	48.4%	53%	0–7	20
8	Kayla Thornton	GS	5.5	2.7	48.9%	52%	2–11	36
9	Rhyne Howard	ATL	4.0	2.1	53.8%	52%	0–8	52
10	DeWanna Bonner	ATL	6.6	3.6	54.0%	46%	2–13	11
11	Veronica Burton	GS	3.8	2.1	54.9%	45%	0–10	50
12	Jordin Canada	ATL	3.6	2.0	55.8%	55%	0–9	52

Assists

#	Player	Team	Mean	Std	CV ↓	Confidence	Range	G
1	Jordin Canada	ATL	7.4	3.0	40.1%	63%	2–14	52
2	Veronica Burton	GS	5.6	2.5	44.6%	59%	2–13	50
3	Tiffany Hayes	GS	3.1	1.6	52.2%	56%	0–7	20
4	DeWanna Bonner	ATL	1.7	0.9	52.4%	51%	0–3	11
5	Rhyne Howard	ATL	3.6	2.1	57.0%	56%	0–8	52
6	Kaitlyn Chen	GS	2.5	1.5	59.2%	57%	0–6	17
7	Angel Reese	ATL	2.7	1.6	61.2%	42%	0–8	51
8	Gabby Williams	GS	2.8	1.8	63.7%	44%	0–8	42
9	Allisha Gray	ATL	2.6	1.7	64.7%	40%	0–7	50
10	Cecilia Zandalasini	GS	1.5	1.1	73.2%	32%	0–3	18
11	Kiah Stokes	GS	1.5	1.2	76.9%	32%	0–4	42
12	Naz Hillmon	ATL	1.6	1.2	77.9%	31%	0–5	49

Only players whose team is on tonight's slate are shown; the consistency numbers themselves are season-to-date. A low CV means a player's totals barely move — useful for choosing which over/under lines are safest. Not betting advice.

📊 WNBA Accuracy / Track Record

Best-bet over/under picks, graded vs actual box scores. Logged pre-tip so there's no hindsight.

🎯 Best bets overall: 128/182 = 70%

Last 5 logged days: 7/14 = 50%

Accuracy

70%

128-54 · 182 bets

ROI

+9%

+2.0u · 23 priced

Beat the close

55%

avg +0.7% CLV · 11 bets

ROI is real profit at the prices we posted; CLV (did we beat the closing line?) is the honest sign of edge. Both fill in as we log each WNBA pick's entry and closing odds.

Date	Best bets	Hit%
2026-10-24	1/3	33%
2026-10-21	2/3	67%
2026-10-19	1/2	50%
2026-10-17	1/4	25%
2026-10-09	2/2	100%
2026-10-07	3/4	75%
2026-10-04	3/7	43%
2026-10-01	3/3	100%
2026-08-03	5/10	50%
2026-08-02	8/10	80%
2026-08-01	5/8	62%
2026-07-31	3/5	60%
2026-07-30	5/7	71%
2026-07-29	8/10	80%
2026-07-28	8/10	80%
2026-07-22	8/11	73%
2026-07-20	8/12	67%
2026-07-18	7/12	58%
2026-07-17	9/12	75%
2026-07-16	1/1	100%
2026-07-15	10/12	83%
2026-07-14	2/3	67%
2026-07-13	9/12	75%
2026-07-12	7/10	70%
2026-07-10	9/9	100%

Validation: a walk-forward backtest (197 player-games, no lookahead) had over-picks at P≥60% winning ≈60% (95% CI 56–64%), above the 52.4% break-even. Probabilities are now Platt-calibrated so the % are honest. Not betting advice.