🏀 WNBA — Props & Consistency

Live · built Jul 28, 12:05 AM · 2026-07-28 · 84 rotation players
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✔ UPDATEDJul 28, 2026 at 12:05 AMfresh lines, lineups & odds
💰 +EV🎯 Best Bets🏀 Props🎯 Consistency📊 Accuracy⭐ Tommy's Players
💰 +EV Best Bets
No Best Bets had a matching market line today.
🎯 WNBA BEST BETS — highest-confidence overs
Ariel Atkins
G · Sparks vs Liberty · Home
72% AST over 1.5
hit 90% of games this season
projecting 2.6 AST vs NY (season 2.6, last-5 2.6); cleared 1.5 in 90% of games this year.
Jonquel Jones
C · Liberty @ Sparks · Away
65% AST over 1.5
hit 82% of games this season
projecting 2.5 AST @LA (season 2.6, last-5 2.4); cleared 1.5 in 82% of games this year.
Brittney Griner
C · Sun @ Mystics · Away
64% AST over 1.5
hit 86% of games this season
projecting 2.6 AST @WSH (season 2.9, last-5 2.4); cleared 1.5 in 86% of games this year.
A'ja Wilson
C · Aces vs Fire · Home
64% P+R+A over 34.5
hit 73% of games this season
projecting 41.1 P+R+A vs POR (season 39.6, last-5 38.8); cleared 34.5 in 73% of games this year. POR is a leaky defense (boosts scoring)
Natasha Howard
F · Lynx vs Tempo · Home
63% AST over 1.5
hit 73% of games this season
projecting 2.4 AST vs TOR (season 2.2, last-5 2.6); cleared 1.5 in 73% of games this year.
Olivia Miles
G · Lynx vs Tempo · Home
63% REB over 3.5
hit 91% of games this season
projecting 4.3 REB vs TOR (season 4.5, last-5 4.2); cleared 3.5 in 91% of games this year.
Nneka Ogwumike
F · Sparks vs Liberty · Home
63% AST over 1.5
hit 80% of games this season
projecting 2.4 AST vs NY (season 2.5, last-5 2.4); cleared 1.5 in 80% of games this year.
Kelsey Mitchell
G · Fever @ Storm · Away
63% AST over 1.5
hit 82% of games this season
projecting 2.7 AST @SEA (season 2.7, last-5 2.6); cleared 1.5 in 82% of games this year.
Shakira Austin
C · Mystics vs Sun · Home
63% P+R+A over 19.5
hit 60% of games this season
projecting 23.0 P+R+A vs CON (season 22.5, last-5 23.2); cleared 19.5 in 60% of games this year.

🏀 Tonight's Player Props

Top 15 by projected points (of 84 rotation players) · projected points, rebounds, assists

#PlayerPosTeamOpponentHome/AwayMinPTSREBASTP+R+A3PMBest Over
1A'ja WilsonCAcesFireHome3427.5
L10 26.6
10.3
L10 9.8
2.6
L10 3.1
41.1
L10 39.5
0.4P+R+A o34.5 64%
2Marina MabreyGTempoLynxAway3025.0
L10 23.8
3.5
L10 3.1
3.7
L10 3.7
31.8
L10 30.6
4.63PM o3.5 58%
3Jackie YoungGAcesFireHome3423.8
L10 20.8
4.4
L10 4.3
6.9
L10 7.3
35.6
L10 32.4
2.63PM o1.5 62%
4Kelsey MitchellGFeverStormAway3323.5
L10 22.1
1.7
L10 2.1
2.7
L10 2.8
27.9
L10 27.0
3.4AST o1.5 63%
5Caitlin ClarkGFeverStormAway3222.8
L10 21.9
3.2
L10 4.0
8.7
L10 8.2
34.7
L10 34.1
2.53PM o1.5 64%
6Olivia MilesGLynxTempoHome3022.1
L10 21.4
4.3
L10 4.6
5.5
L10 5.2
32.6
L10 31.2
1.3REB o3.5 63%
7Sonia CitronGMysticsSunHome3620.8
L10 19.3
4.7
L10 4.5
4.0
L10 4.0
29.5
L10 27.8
1.5P+R+A o25.5 59%
8Breanna StewartFLibertySparksAway3320.6
L10 20.2
8.4
L10 8.7
3.5
L10 3.2
33.2
L10 32.1
0.6AST o2.5 61%
9Kelsey PlumGSparksLibertyHome3419.7
L10 21.0
2.6
L10 2.5
6.6
L10 6.5
28.5
L10 30.0
1.9AST o5.5 57%
10Natasha HowardFLynxTempoHome3018.8
L10 18.7
9.5
L10 8.6
2.4
L10 2.1
31.6
L10 29.4
0.0AST o1.5 63%
11Natisha HiedemanGStormFeverHome3018.4
L10 17.9
2.3
L10 2.8
5.6
L10 5.4
26.6
L10 26.1
2.73PM o1.5 63%
12Jonquel JonesCLibertySparksAway3018.3
L10 16.1
8.0
L10 8.1
2.5
L10 2.7
29.5
L10 26.9
2.2AST o1.5 65%
13Aliyah BostonCFeverStormAway2917.3
L10 17.6
8.7
L10 9.5
3.3
L10 3.3
29.4
L10 30.4
1.2P+R+A o25.5 59%
14Dominique MalongaCStormFeverHome2417.2
L10 14.5
10.9
L10 10.1
1.9
L10 1.8
30.4
L10 26.4
0.4AST o1.5 59%
15Brittney SykesGTempoLynxAway3216.9
L10 19.9
3.8
L10 3.9
3.9
L10 4.1
24.2
L10 27.9
1.2AST o3.5 56%
Each stat shows tonight's projection with the player's last-10-game average (L10) beneath it, for points, rebounds, assists, and P+R+A. Projections weight last-5 form over season average and adjust scoring for the opponent's points-allowed. Best Over = the highest standard line the projection clears with a real edge; % is the model's P(over). Assumes the player is active and plays her usual minutes — injuries, rest, and blowouts are NOT modeled, so confirm she's in before betting. Backtest (197 walk-forward player-games, 2026, no lookahead): over-picks at P≥60% won ≈60% (95% CI 56–64%, beats the 52.4% break-even); the narrower P≥68% tier won ≈58% but its CI just touches break-even. Two honest limits — the projection barely beats a season-average baseline, and the % are roughly (not precisely) calibrated, so higher confidence ≠ reliably higher win rate. AST & P+R+A graded best; REB overs were over-confident. Edge is vs fixed lines, not the book's. Small early-season sample. Research tool, not betting advice.

🎯 Scoring Consistency — the 'Otto Lopez' types

Steadiest scorers on tonight's slate (up to 12 per category), ranked by how STEADY they are game-to-game (games under 20 min dropped). CV = std ÷ mean — lower = more consistent = a safer prop target. Confidence = a 0-100% 'how safe a target' score blending steadiness (low CV), floor reliability (how often they hit near their average), and sample size. Higher = safer.

Points (headline)

#PlayerTeamMeanStdCV ↓ConsistencyConfidenceRangeG
1Aneesah MorrowCON13.92.719.8%66%10–178
2Kelsey MitchellIND22.44.821.6%74%15–3011
3Kiki RiceTOR14.83.322.6%65%11–198
4A'ja WilsonLV26.56.524.5%69%16–3411
5Natisha HiedemanSEA17.34.526.2%72%11–2611
6Breanna StewartNY20.15.326.4%68%14–3011
7Caitlin ClarkIND21.96.127.8%68%10–3210
8Kayla McBrideMIN15.14.328.2%67%7–2211
9Natasha HowardMIN18.05.329.7%66%10–2711
10Megan DiLeoPOR14.14.330.6%64%7–209
11Jackie YoungLV20.97.033.5%67%6–3112
12Olivia MilesMIN21.27.133.6%68%7–3111

Rebounds

#PlayerTeamMeanStdCV ↓ConsistencyConfidenceRangeG
1Aliyah BostonIND9.31.617.4%76%7–1211
2Maria CondeTOR5.31.324.8%62%3–79
3Olivia MilesMIN4.51.124.8%76%3–711
4Nia CoffeyMIN6.31.625.8%68%3–811
5Aneesah MorrowCON11.53.026.3%68%6–168
6Breanna StewartNY8.72.528.6%67%4–1211
7Dominique MalongaSEA10.43.029.1%67%6–158
8Dearica HambyLA7.92.632.4%58%4–1210
9A'ja WilsonLV10.33.534.0%68%5–1511
10Shakira AustinWSH9.53.436.2%60%5–1610
11Chelsea GrayLV4.11.536.9%65%1–612
12Nneka OgwumikeLA9.83.738.1%55%6–1710

Assists

#PlayerTeamMeanStdCV ↓ConsistencyConfidenceRangeG
1Ariel AtkinsLA2.90.622.3%65%2–48
2Chelsea GrayLV7.82.025.4%75%3–1112
3Pauline AstierNY4.31.125.8%72%2–611
4Jackie YoungLV7.21.926.4%71%5–1012
5Caitlin ClarkIND8.22.631.9%66%5–1410
6Carla LeitePOR6.72.334.4%58%4–109
7Courtney WilliamsMIN3.81.538.5%54%2–711
8Olivia MilesMIN5.62.341.4%60%1–1011
9Erica WheelerLA4.11.742.2%61%1–610
10Leila LacanCON4.72.144.2%53%2–79
11Natisha HiedemanSEA5.12.345.2%54%2–1111
12Jonquel JonesNY2.61.245.7%50%1–511
Only players whose team is on tonight's slate are shown; the consistency numbers themselves are season-to-date. A low CV means a player's totals barely move — useful for choosing which over/under lines are safest. Not betting advice.

📊 WNBA Accuracy / Track Record

Best-bet over/under picks, graded vs actual box scores. Logged pre-tip so there's no hindsight.

🎯 Best bets overall: 70/94 = 74%
Last 5 logged days: 33/48 = 69%
Accuracy
74%
70-24 · 94 bets
ROI
-24%
-1.7u · 7 priced
Beat the close
0%
avg -2.2% CLV · 4 bets
ROI is real profit at the prices we posted; CLV (did we beat the closing line?) is the honest sign of edge. Both fill in as we log each WNBA pick's entry and closing odds.
DateBest betsHit%
2026-07-228/1173%
2026-07-208/1267%
2026-07-187/1258%
2026-07-179/1275%
2026-07-161/1100%
2026-07-1510/1283%
2026-07-142/367%
2026-07-139/1275%
2026-07-127/1070%
2026-07-109/9100%
Validation: a walk-forward backtest (197 player-games, no lookahead) had over-picks at P≥60% winning ≈60% (95% CI 56–64%), above the 52.4% break-even. Probabilities are now Platt-calibrated so the % are honest. Not betting advice.