🏈 NCAAF — Projections

Live · built Nov 5, 5:32 PM CT · 2026-11-05 · Week 10 · model analysis
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✔ UPDATEDNov 5, 2026 at 5:32 PM CTfresh lines, lineups & odds

Week 10 · 57 upcoming games · who wins and by how much, honest analysis not betting picks

📊 2026 accuracy so far (through week 10, 505 graded games, updated every week as games finish):
• Winner (ML): 76.4% correct (386 of 505)
• Points (margin): within a touchdown 38% of the time (average miss 11.4 points)
• Total (O/U): average miss 12.3 points vs the line
What this is: how often the market favorite won. Our winner pick follows the market, so this measures the market's accuracy shown cleanly, not our model beating it. It is not a betting edge, favorites are priced accordingly. Margin and total miss by around two touchdowns because a single game is high variance, that is normal for any forecast.
How we make these predictions. We rate every team with opponent-adjusted power ratings from CollegeFootballData (SP+ and Elo), which measure how good a team really is after adjusting for who they have played. From those ratings we project a score and a win probability for each game. Because college betting markets are highly efficient, we anchor our numbers to the market consensus, the sharpest public forecast, so they stay accurate.

How to read each column:
• Winner (ML) is the team we project to win, and how often they would win if the game were replayed many times (for example 89% of the time).
• Points (margin) is how many points we project that team to win by (for example Houston by 21).
• Total (O/U) is the market's over/under line, shown for reference. We do not post an Over or Under pick: we tested a totals model and, judged honestly season by season, it did not beat the closing line every year (strong one season, breakeven the next), which is not good enough to bet. We would rather show you nothing than sell a pick that does not hold up.
Kickoff CTMatchupWinner (ML)Points (margin)Total (O/U)
Thu 6:30PMUTSA
@ Florida Atlantic
UTSA wins
67% of the time
UTSA by 7
projected margin
72.5
line · no pick
Thu 7:00PMJames Madison
@ Southern Miss
James Madison wins
81% of the time
James Madison by 14
projected margin
57.75
line · no pick
Fri 6:00PMVirginia Tech
@ SMU
SMU wins
65% of the time
SMU by 6
projected margin
56.5
line · no pick
Fri 6:30PMSouth Florida
@ East Carolina
East Carolina wins
56% of the time
East Carolina by 2
projected margin
39.5
line · no pick
Fri 7:00PMNebraska
@ Illinois
Nebraska wins
61% of the time
Nebraska by 4
projected margin
50.5
line · no pick
Fri 8:00PMNew Mexico
@ Nevada
New Mexico wins
73% of the time
New Mexico by 10
projected margin
38.5
line · no pick
Fri 9:15PMTCU
@ Arizona
Arizona wins
68% of the time
Arizona by 8
projected margin
45.75
line · no pick
Sat 11:00AMNorth Carolina
@ UConn
North Carolina wins
67% of the time
North Carolina by 7
projected margin
54.5
line · no pick
Sat 11:00AMClemson
@ Syracuse
Clemson wins
56% of the time
Clemson by 2
projected margin
49.5
line · no pick
Sat 11:00AMFlorida State
@ Boston College
Florida State wins
66% of the time
Florida State by 6
projected margin
52.5
line · no pick
Sat 11:00AMTulsa
@ Tulane
Tulsa wins
56% of the time
Tulsa by 2
projected margin
49.75
line · no pick
Sat 11:00AMIowa State
@ Baylor
Baylor wins
73% of the time
Baylor by 10
projected margin
51.25
line · no pick
Sat 11:00AMBYU
@ Utah
Utah wins
61% of the time
Utah by 4
projected margin
48.5
line · no pick
Sat 11:00AMTexas
@ Missouri
Texas wins
57% of the time
Texas by 3
projected margin
42.5
line · no pick
Sat 11:00AMUCLA
@ Minnesota
UCLA wins
62% of the time
UCLA by 5
projected margin
38.75
line · no pick
Sat 11:30AMMaryland
@ Purdue
Purdue wins
63% of the time
Purdue by 6
projected margin
56.5
line · no pick
Sat 11:30AMDuke
@ NC State
Duke wins
60% of the time
Duke by 4
projected margin
51.5
line · no pick
Sat 11:45AMArkansas
@ Auburn
Auburn wins
74% of the time
Auburn by 10
projected margin
53.75
line · no pick
Sat 12:00PMOklahoma State
@ Kansas State
Oklahoma State wins
65% of the time
Oklahoma State by 6
projected margin
62.5
line · no pick
Sat 12:00PMOld Dominion
@ Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina wins
66% of the time
Coastal Carolina by 6
projected margin
44.25
line · no pick
Sat 1:30PMGeorgia State
@ App State
App State wins
65% of the time
App State by 6
projected margin
54.25
line · no pick
Sat 2:00PMTexas A&M
@ South Carolina
South Carolina wins
67% of the time
South Carolina by 7
projected margin
50.75
line · no pick
Sat 2:00PMDelaware
@ Kennesaw State
Delaware wins
54% of the time
Delaware by 2
projected margin
57
line · no pick
Sat 2:00PMUL Monroe
@ Arkansas State
Arkansas State wins
82% of the time
Arkansas State by 14
projected margin
53.25
line · no pick
Sat 2:30PMMarshall
@ Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern wins
74% of the time
Georgia Southern by 10
projected margin
54.75
line · no pick
Sat 2:30PMCincinnati
@ Houston
Houston wins
74% of the time
Houston by 10
projected margin
62.5
line · no pick
Sat 2:30PMAlabama
@ LSU
LSU wins
65% of the time
LSU by 6
projected margin
52.5
line · no pick
Sat 2:30PMTemple
@ Navy
Navy wins
67% of the time
Navy by 7
projected margin
54.5
line · no pick
Sat 2:30PMPenn State
@ Washington
Washington wins
56% of the time
Washington by 2
projected margin
44.25
line · no pick
Sat 2:30PMOregon
@ Ohio State
Ohio State wins
69% of the time
Ohio State by 8
projected margin
46.5
line · no pick
Sat 2:30PMCharlotte
@ UAB
UAB wins
70% of the time
UAB by 8
projected margin
47.5
line · no pick
Sat 2:30PMWestern Kentucky
@ Middle Tennessee
Western Kentucky wins
54% of the time
Western Kentucky by 2
projected margin
53.5
line · no pick
Sat 2:45PMUCF
@ Kansas
Kansas wins
57% of the time
Kansas by 3
projected margin
47.5
line · no pick
Sat 3:00PMLouisiana Tech
@ Troy
Louisiana Tech wins
63% of the time
Louisiana Tech by 5
projected margin
47.75
line · no pick
Sat 3:00PMRice
@ North Texas
North Texas wins
86% of the time
North Texas by 17
projected margin
64.5
line · no pick
Sat 3:00PMMissouri State
@ Florida International
Florida International wins
62% of the time
Florida International by 5
projected margin
49.75
line · no pick
Sat 3:00PMNorthern Illinois
@ San José State
San José State wins
74% of the time
San José State by 10
projected margin
51.75
line · no pick
Sat 3:15PMVanderbilt
@ Mississippi State
Mississippi State wins
57% of the time
Mississippi State by 3
projected margin
48.5
line · no pick
Sat 3:15PMRutgers
@ Wisconsin
Wisconsin wins
87% of the time
Wisconsin by 18
projected margin
45.75
line · no pick
Sat 4:00PMSouth Alabama
@ Louisiana
Louisiana wins
68% of the time
Louisiana by 8
projected margin
57.5
line · no pick
Sat 5:00PMBoise State
@ Colorado State
Boise State wins
86% of the time
Boise State by 18
projected margin
68.75
line · no pick
Sat 5:15PMKentucky
@ Tennessee
Tennessee wins
66% of the time
Tennessee by 6
projected margin
49.5
line · no pick
Sat 6:00PMSam Houston
@ Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State wins
86% of the time
Jacksonville State by 17
projected margin
48.25
line · no pick
Sat 6:30PMLouisville
@ Georgia Tech
Louisville wins
82% of the time
Louisville by 14
projected margin
62.25
line · no pick
Sat 6:30PMAir Force
@ Army
Army wins
57% of the time
Army by 3
projected margin
44.5
line · no pick
Sat 6:30PMColorado
@ Arizona State
Arizona State wins
59% of the time
Arizona State by 4
projected margin
48.5
line · no pick
Sat 6:30PMMiami
@ Notre Dame
Notre Dame wins
67% of the time
Notre Dame by 7
projected margin
54.5
line · no pick
Sat 6:30PMGeorgia
@ Ole Miss
Georgia wins
59% of the time
Georgia by 4
projected margin
56.5
line · no pick
Sat 6:30PMMichigan State
@ Michigan
Michigan wins
80% of the time
Michigan by 14
projected margin
39.5
line · no pick
Sat 6:30PMIowa
@ Northwestern
Northwestern wins
56% of the time
Northwestern by 2
projected margin
45.25
line · no pick
Sat 6:45PMOklahoma
@ Florida
Florida wins
66% of the time
Florida by 6
projected margin
45.25
line · no pick
Sat 7:00PMLiberty
@ New Mexico State
Liberty wins
85% of the time
Liberty by 16
projected margin
46.5
line · no pick
Sat 8:30PMWest Virginia
@ Texas Tech
Texas Tech wins
86% of the time
Texas Tech by 17
projected margin
65.5
line · no pick
Sat 8:30PMFresno State
@ Utah State
Fresno State wins
56% of the time
Fresno State by 2
projected margin
42.5
line · no pick
Sat 8:30PMHawai'i
@ UTEP
Hawai'i wins
71% of the time
Hawai'i by 9
projected margin
49.25
line · no pick
Sat 9:30PMTexas State
@ Oregon State
Oregon State wins
65% of the time
Oregon State by 6
projected margin
71.25
line · no pick
Sat 9:30PMWyoming
@ UNLV
UNLV wins
63% of the time
UNLV by 6
projected margin
48.5
line · no pick

🏈 Season stat leaders — top 10 (2026)

Running FBS leaders in passing, rushing, and receiving yards and touchdowns, updated after every game. Season totals (they include any FCS-opponent game, so early-season totals can be padded). A production reference, not picks.

🎯 Passing yards
  1. Braden Atkinson Oregon State 2956 yds
  2. Drew Mestemaker Oklahoma State 2649 yds
  3. Tayven Jackson North Texas 2568 yds
  4. Caden Veltkamp Florida Atlantic 2534 yds
  5. Marcus Stokes Memphis 2532 yds
  6. Jayden Maiava USC 2525 yds
  7. Noah Fifita Arizona 2464 yds
  8. Kevin Jennings SMU 2433 yds
  9. Darian Mensah Miami 2425 yds
  10. John Alan Richter Toledo 2304 yds
🎯 Passing TDs
  1. Darian Mensah Miami 25 TD
  2. Marcus Stokes Memphis 25 TD
  3. Braden Atkinson Oregon State 25 TD
  4. Drew Mestemaker Oklahoma State 25 TD
  5. Caden Veltkamp Florida Atlantic 23 TD
  6. Tayven Jackson North Texas 22 TD
  7. Kevin Jennings SMU 21 TD
  8. Jayden Maiava USC 20 TD
  9. Conner Weigman Houston 20 TD
  10. Josh Hoover Indiana 19 TD
🏃 Rushing yards
  1. Dylan Riley Boise State 1049 yds
  2. Jahiem White North Texas 1043 yds
  3. Jamal Roberts Missouri 1005 yds
  4. Jackson Gutierrez Navy 982 yds
  5. Nate Sheppard Duke 972 yds
  6. DeSean Bishop Tennessee 957 yds
  7. Aiden Flora Iowa State 937 yds
  8. Jaylin Carter Memphis 929 yds
  9. Cam Cook West Virginia 923 yds
  10. Torrance Burgess Jr. Texas State 922 yds
🏃 Rushing TDs
  1. Cale Hellums Army 17 TD
  2. Michael Hawkins Jr. West Virginia 16 TD
  3. Nate Sheppard Duke 14 TD
  4. Jahiem White North Texas 13 TD
  5. Jadan Baugh Florida 13 TD
  6. Jackson Gutierrez Navy 13 TD
  7. Ashton Daniels Florida State 12 TD
  8. Wayne Knight UCLA 12 TD
  9. DeSean Bishop Tennessee 11 TD
  10. Lincoln Kienholz Louisville 11 TD
🙌 Receiving yards
  1. Jesse Legree Oregon State 1110 yds
  2. Jeremiah Smith Ohio State 1067 yds
  3. Malachi Toney Miami 1027 yds
  4. Umari Hatcher Syracuse 952 yds
  5. Easton Messer Florida Atlantic 891 yds
  6. Charlie Becker Indiana 875 yds
  7. Isaiah Myers Missouri State 873 yds
  8. Carlos Hernandez Wake Forest 856 yds
  9. Reed Harris Arizona State 804 yds
  10. Gavin Freeman Baylor 792 yds
🙌 Receiving TDs
  1. Jesse Legree Oregon State 14 TD
  2. Jeremiah Smith Ohio State 13 TD
  3. Malachi Toney Miami 13 TD
  4. Collin Dixon Illinois 10 TD
  5. Easton Messer Florida Atlantic 9 TD
  6. Justin Bowick Oklahoma State 9 TD
  7. KJ Duff Rutgers 9 TD
  8. Charlie Becker Indiana 9 TD
  9. Umari Hatcher Syracuse 8 TD
  10. Chance Morrow Buffalo 8 TD

📋 Scouting reference — top 30 teams

Unit strength to inform your own read on a matchup, from CollegeFootballData advanced stats. Based on the 2026 season (we use last year's full sample until enough of this season is played, since one or two games is too noisy to rank on). FBS only. Early-season caution: these season totals still include any FCS-opponent game, so a surprise mid-major name in a top 5 (a Conference USA line, a Mountain West secondary) is likely a small-sample mirage, weight the traditional powers and the matchup, not the exact rank.

🛡️ Offensive line
run blocking, line yards (higher is better)
  1. Air Force 3.73
  2. Miami 3.69
  3. Cincinnati 3.56
  4. Wyoming 3.55
  5. Houston 3.54
  6. Navy 3.54
  7. Army 3.51
  8. UCLA 3.48
  9. Georgia 3.47
  10. South Carolina 3.44
  11. Memphis 3.44
  12. Liberty 3.40
  13. Temple 3.39
  14. Georgia State 3.38
  15. Ohio 3.37
  16. UConn 3.37
  17. Florida State 3.36
  18. Indiana 3.35
  19. Akron 3.33
  20. Oregon State 3.33
  21. Utah 3.31
  22. Boise State 3.31
  23. Illinois 3.31
  24. Kansas 3.31
  25. Kentucky 3.28
  26. Oklahoma State 3.27
  27. Central Michigan 3.27
  28. Tennessee 3.27
  29. Miami (OH) 3.26
  30. Wake Forest 3.25
🏃 Run defense
rushing PPA allowed (lower is better)
  1. Iowa -0.223
  2. UCLA -0.200
  3. Georgia -0.175
  4. TCU -0.163
  5. Miami -0.162
  6. New Mexico -0.159
  7. Duke -0.149
  8. Pittsburgh -0.147
  9. Ohio State -0.134
  10. Notre Dame -0.133
  11. Baylor -0.129
  12. Alabama -0.126
  13. Louisiana -0.114
  14. Indiana -0.110
  15. Michigan -0.105
  16. Toledo -0.097
  17. North Dakota State -0.097
  18. James Madison -0.095
  19. South Florida -0.089
  20. Virginia Tech -0.081
  21. Texas -0.075
  22. Utah -0.074
  23. Old Dominion -0.069
  24. Georgia Southern -0.066
  25. Texas Tech -0.058
  26. Washington -0.057
  27. UCF -0.053
  28. Colorado -0.046
  29. Wake Forest -0.045
  30. Texas A&M -0.044
🎯 Pass defense
passing PPA allowed (lower is better)
  1. UCLA -0.223
  2. North Dakota State -0.132
  3. LSU -0.118
  4. Nebraska -0.101
  5. Tennessee -0.093
  6. UAB -0.071
  7. Baylor -0.066
  8. New Mexico -0.060
  9. Louisiana Tech -0.054
  10. Liberty -0.052
  11. Michigan -0.039
  12. Penn State -0.030
  13. Arizona -0.026
  14. Wisconsin -0.025
  15. Indiana -0.017
  16. Oklahoma -0.013
  17. Utah -0.006
  18. Texas +0.002
  19. TCU +0.012
  20. Ohio State +0.015
  21. Memphis +0.019
  22. Jacksonville State +0.026
  23. New Mexico State +0.027
  24. East Carolina +0.030
  25. Sam Houston +0.036
  26. Clemson +0.038
  27. UNLV +0.039
  28. Texas Tech +0.050
  29. Washington +0.064
  30. BYU +0.065
🚧 Scoring-zone defense
points allowed once a drive reaches your 40 (the closest public proxy to red zone; lower is better)
  1. North Dakota State 1.92
  2. New Mexico 2.00
  3. UCLA 2.25
  4. Michigan 2.26
  5. Baylor 2.29
  6. Texas 2.32
  7. Liberty 2.32
  8. Nebraska 2.38
  9. South Florida 2.58
  10. Wake Forest 2.60
  11. Duke 2.62
  12. Georgia 2.68
  13. Utah 2.70
  14. Tennessee 2.72
  15. Clemson 2.74
  16. LSU 2.76
  17. Iowa 2.81
  18. TCU 2.81
  19. Indiana 2.86
  20. Texas A&M 2.87
  21. Northwestern 2.88
  22. Louisiana Tech 2.89
  23. San José State 2.90
  24. Oklahoma 2.93
  25. Missouri 2.95
  26. Massachusetts 2.96
  27. Fresno State 3.00
  28. Virginia Tech 3.00
  29. Washington 3.00
  30. Western Michigan 3.00
Honest note. These are our read on each game, anchored to the market. We tested our models the hard way, out of sample and season by season, and neither the spread model nor the totals model beat the closing line reliably (the totals looked good pooled but that was one strong season hiding a breakeven one). College game markets are efficient, so we publish analysis, not betting picks, rather than sell an edge we did not truly earn. Player props (QB, rushing, receiving) are next, and will only be posted if they pass the same per-season, out-of-sample test. Research tool, not betting advice, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.