🏈 NCAAF — Projections

⚠ Stale — built for 2026-09-05, today is 2026-09-06 · built Sep 6, 8:45 AM CT · 2026-09-05 · Week 1 · model analysis
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⚠ OUTDATEDbuilt for 2026-09-05today is 2026-09-06 — re-run to refresh

Week 1 · 4 upcoming games · who wins and by how much, honest analysis not betting picks

📊 2026 accuracy so far (through week 1, 47 graded games, updated every week as games finish):
• Winner (ML): 85.1% correct (40 of 47)
• Points (margin): within a touchdown 26% of the time (average miss 14.4 points)
• Total (O/U): average miss 11.6 points vs the line
What this is: how often the market favorite won. Our winner pick follows the market, so this measures the market's accuracy shown cleanly, not our model beating it. It is not a betting edge, favorites are priced accordingly. Margin and total miss by around two touchdowns because a single game is high variance, that is normal for any forecast.
How we make these predictions. We rate every team with opponent-adjusted power ratings from CollegeFootballData (SP+ and Elo), which measure how good a team really is after adjusting for who they have played. From those ratings we project a score and a win probability for each game. Because college betting markets are highly efficient, we anchor our numbers to the market consensus, the sharpest public forecast, so they stay accurate.

How to read each column:
• Winner (ML) is the team we project to win, and how often they would win if the game were replayed many times (for example 89% of the time).
• Points (margin) is how many points we project that team to win by (for example Houston by 21).
• Total (O/U) is the market's over/under line, shown for reference. We do not post an Over or Under pick: we tested a totals model and, judged honestly season by season, it did not beat the closing line every year (strong one season, breakeven the next), which is not good enough to bet. We would rather show you nothing than sell a pick that does not hold up.
Kickoff CTMatchupWinner (ML)Points (margin)Total (O/U)
Sun 3:00PMWashington State
@ Washington
Washington wins
93% of the time
Washington by 23
projected margin
51.25
line · no pick
Sun 6:30PMLouisville
@ Ole Miss
Ole Miss wins
66% of the time
Ole Miss by 6
projected margin
54.75
line · no pick
Sun 6:30PMWisconsin
@ Notre Dame
Notre Dame wins
90% of the time
Notre Dame by 20
projected margin
46.5
line · no pick
Mon 6:30PMSMU
@ Florida State
SMU wins
57% of the time
SMU by 3
projected margin
52.75
line · no pick

📋 Scouting reference — top 30 teams

Unit strength to inform your own read on a matchup, from CollegeFootballData advanced stats. Based on the 2025 season (we use last year's full sample until enough of this season is played, since one or two games is too noisy to rank on). FBS only.

🛡️ Offensive line
run blocking, line yards (higher is better)
  1. Utah 3.54
  2. Kansas 3.51
  3. Cincinnati 3.48
  4. Florida State 3.47
  5. North Texas 3.47
  6. Navy 3.46
  7. Arkansas 3.38
  8. Georgia Tech 3.36
  9. Indiana 3.35
  10. Virginia Tech 3.34
  11. Ohio 3.32
  12. Michigan 3.32
  13. Memphis 3.32
  14. Florida 3.27
  15. Air Force 3.27
  16. South Florida 3.27
  17. San Diego State 3.26
  18. Iowa 3.25
  19. Vanderbilt 3.24
  20. James Madison 3.24
  21. Washington 3.22
  22. Old Dominion 3.22
  23. Georgia Southern 3.22
  24. UNLV 3.20
  25. Jacksonville State 3.19
  26. Nebraska 3.19
  27. New Mexico 3.17
  28. USC 3.15
  29. Miami (OH) 3.14
  30. Missouri 3.13
🏃 Run defense
rushing PPA allowed (lower is better)
  1. Texas Tech -0.145
  2. Auburn -0.113
  3. Oklahoma -0.082
  4. Indiana -0.069
  5. Pittsburgh -0.068
  6. Ohio State -0.067
  7. South Carolina -0.058
  8. SMU -0.053
  9. Washington -0.034
  10. East Carolina -0.034
  11. Toledo -0.028
  12. James Madison -0.028
  13. Miami -0.011
  14. Georgia -0.010
  15. Stanford -0.009
  16. Old Dominion -0.003
  17. New Mexico State +0.002
  18. UTEP +0.005
  19. Wake Forest +0.007
  20. Memphis +0.010
  21. West Virginia +0.014
  22. Iowa State +0.016
  23. Vanderbilt +0.017
  24. Texas +0.020
  25. Louisiana Tech +0.021
  26. LSU +0.026
  27. South Florida +0.027
  28. TCU +0.030
  29. Missouri +0.032
  30. Middle Tennessee +0.034
🎯 Pass defense
passing PPA allowed (lower is better)
  1. Toledo -0.077
  2. San Diego State -0.050
  3. Utah -0.033
  4. Texas Tech +0.025
  5. Boise State +0.033
  6. Notre Dame +0.052
  7. Missouri +0.052
  8. James Madison +0.058
  9. Louisville +0.062
  10. Ohio State +0.065
  11. Western Michigan +0.070
  12. Oklahoma +0.076
  13. Old Dominion +0.080
  14. Wake Forest +0.101
  15. Texas A&M +0.103
  16. Oregon +0.103
  17. Louisiana Tech +0.106
  18. Ole Miss +0.114
  19. Arizona +0.115
  20. Alabama +0.122
  21. Central Michigan +0.126
  22. Miami +0.130
  23. BYU +0.131
  24. Wyoming +0.132
  25. Western Kentucky +0.132
  26. Virginia +0.132
  27. Indiana +0.134
  28. Iowa +0.134
  29. UCF +0.135
  30. Fresno State +0.136
🚧 Scoring-zone defense
points allowed once a drive reaches your 40 (the closest public proxy to red zone; lower is better)
  1. Indiana 2.07
  2. Texas Tech 2.41
  3. San Diego State 2.42
  4. Toledo 2.45
  5. Miami 2.51
  6. Notre Dame 2.58
  7. Oklahoma 2.62
  8. Ohio State 2.64
  9. Clemson 2.68
  10. Western Kentucky 2.72
  11. Wyoming 2.77
  12. SMU 2.79
  13. Ohio 2.83
  14. Western Michigan 2.83
  15. Washington 2.93
  16. Utah 2.93
  17. New Mexico 3.01
  18. Virginia 3.01
  19. Old Dominion 3.03
  20. East Carolina 3.05
  21. Iowa State 3.06
  22. Buffalo 3.07
  23. Louisiana Tech 3.07
  24. Ole Miss 3.10
  25. Wisconsin 3.13
  26. Central Michigan 3.14
  27. Washington State 3.14
  28. South Florida 3.15
  29. South Carolina 3.15
  30. Troy 3.17
Honest note. These are our read on each game, anchored to the market. We tested our models the hard way, out of sample and season by season, and neither the spread model nor the totals model beat the closing line reliably (the totals looked good pooled but that was one strong season hiding a breakeven one). College game markets are efficient, so we publish analysis, not betting picks, rather than sell an edge we did not truly earn. Player props (QB, rushing, receiving) are next, and will only be posted if they pass the same per-season, out-of-sample test. Research tool, not betting advice, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.