⭐ Tommy's Players

✔ UPDATEDJul 28, 2026 at 12:05 AMfresh lines, lineups & odds

A curated watch list of the players Tommy follows, refreshed daily with each one's recent form and an honest next-game read.

⚾ Tommy's Team (MLB hits)🏀 Tommy's Players (WNBA)📊 Model Scoreboard

⚾ Tommy's Team — Hit Watch

Chance each hitter records at least one hit in his next game (today if his team plays), using the same model as the MLB page: a Log5 base adjusted for platoon (his split vs the starter's hand), ballpark, recent form, weather, Statcast xBA, and the pitcher's contact rate. Each is priced against the best "to record a hit" number across US books (line shopping), and marked BET only when our probability beats that price (positive expected value), never just because it is likely. Cross-checked against Baseball Musings (David Pinto's daily Log5 / Neural-Net hit picks): where both models agree, that's a consensus pick. Projections, not guarantees — confirm the lineup before betting.

⚾ Otto Lopez (Marlins)

vs Phillies · batting leadoff · .330 hitter · L10 .216 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

66% to record a hit

no market line for a hit yet

.330 hitter batting leadoff, facing a 23%-K starter; tough platoon vs RHP, cold lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Yordan Alvarez

⚠ HOU play @ LAA today but he is not in the projected lineup yet — a rest day, or the lineup is not posted. Recheck near first pitch.

⚾ Luis Arraez (Giants)

vs Brewers · batting leadoff · .327 hitter · L10 .293 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

62% to record a hit

no market line for a hit yet

.327 hitter batting leadoff, facing a high-strikeout starter (27% K), but the bat carries it; outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Jung Hoo Lee

⚠ SF play vs MIL today but he is not in the projected lineup yet — a rest day, or the lineup is not posted. Recheck near first pitch.

⚾ Ernie Clement (Blue Jays)

@ Nationals · batting 7th · .298 hitter · L10 .289 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

62% to record a hit

no market line for a hit yet

.298 hitter batting 7th in the order, facing a 26%-K starter; outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Xavier Edwards (Marlins)

vs Phillies · batting 4th · .287 hitter · L10 .135 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

64% to record a hit

no market line for a hit yet

.287 hitter batting 4th in the order, facing a 23%-K starter; cold lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Jacob Wilson (Athletics)

vs Red Sox · batting leadoff · .278 hitter · L10 .256 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

62% to record a hit

no market line for a hit yet

.278 hitter batting leadoff, facing a 20%-K starter; tough platoon vs LHP.

⚾ Bobby Witt Jr.

⚠ KC play @ MIN today but he is not in the projected lineup yet — a rest day, or the lineup is not posted. Recheck near first pitch.

⚾ Nick Kurtz (Athletics)

vs Red Sox · batting 2nd · .264 hitter · L10 .139 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

59% to record a hit

no market line for a hit yet

.264 hitter batting 2nd in the order, facing a 20%-K starter; cold lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Shea Langeliers

⚠ ATH play vs BOS today but he is not in the projected lineup yet — a rest day, or the lineup is not posted. Recheck near first pitch.

⚾ Yandy Diaz (Rays)

vs Rangers · batting leadoff · .303 hitter · L10 .182 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

64% to record a hit

no market line for a hit yet

.303 hitter batting leadoff, facing a 22%-K starter; cold lately.

⚾ Nick Gonzales

⚠ PIT play vs AZ today but he is not in the projected lineup yet — a rest day, or the lineup is not posted. Recheck near first pitch.

⚾ Jake McCarthy (Rockies)

@ Padres · batting leadoff · .298 hitter · L10 .279 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

62% to record a hit

our 62% = model 61% blended with market 62%

✘ not +EV — PASS (-7.5% at best price -200 @ hardrockbet; too juiced)

.298 hitter batting leadoff, facing a 21%-K starter; outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Brandon Marsh (Phillies)

@ Marlins · batting 4th · .286 hitter · L10 .125 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

64% to record a hit

no market line for a hit yet

.286 hitter batting 4th in the order, facing a 19%-K starter; favorable platoon vs RHP, cold lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Chandler Simpson (Rays)

vs Rangers · batting 5th · .296 hitter · L10 .457 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

66% to record a hit

no market line for a hit yet

.296 hitter batting 5th in the order, facing a 22%-K starter; hot lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⭐ Tommy's Players

Source: ESPN WNBA box scores, pulled 2026-07-28. "Last 5" is each player's five most recent completed games (current, from box scores — not the lagging game-log feed). Projections use recent form, opponent defensive strength, home/away, and rest. Projections, not guarantees.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

⭐ Paige Bueckers (DAL)

Next: vs ATL · 2026-07-30

📊 Last 5 games

Date	Opp	PTS	REB	AST	P+R+A	R+A
2026-07-23	@POR	21	4	5	30	9
2026-07-19	vs LA	25	4	5	34	9
2026-07-12	vs CHI	22	6	11	39	17
2026-07-10	@TOR	34	6	6	46	12
2026-07-08	@NY	15	7	6	28	13
AVG		23.4	5.4	6.6	35.4	12.0

🔮 Next-game projection

Cat	Last-5	Proj	Lean	Trend
PTS	23.4	23.6	over	→ steady
REB	5.4	5.5	over	↗ heating
AST	6.6	6.7	over	→ steady
P+R+A	35.4	35.6	over	→ steady
R+A	12.0	12.2	over	↗ heating

🛡️ Opp defense: ATL allows 84.9 pts (rank 6 of 13, middle) · home · 7d rest

Not modeled (not guessed): position-specific defense, teammate injuries, game pace.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

⭐ Allisha Gray (ATL)

Next: @ DAL · 2026-07-30

📊 Last 5 games

Date	Opp	PTS	REB	AST	P+R+A	R+A
2026-07-19	vs CHI	29	6	3	38	9
2026-07-17	@TOR	18	3	2	23	5
2026-07-13	vs LA	20	1	2	23	3
2026-07-11	vs POR	20	3	2	25	5
2026-07-10	vs SEA	22	3	5	30	8
AVG		21.8	3.2	2.8	27.8	6.0

🔮 Next-game projection

Cat	Last-5	Proj	Lean	Trend
PTS	21.8	20.6	under	↗ heating
REB	3.2	3.1	under	→ steady
AST	2.8	2.7	under	↗ heating
P+R+A	27.8	26.3	under	↗ heating
R+A	6.0	5.9	under	↗ heating

🛡️ Opp defense: DAL allows 83.0 pts (rank 4 of 13, tough) · away · 11d rest

Not modeled (not guessed): position-specific defense, teammate injuries, game pace.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

⭐ Angel Reese (ATL)

Next: @ DAL · 2026-07-30

📊 Last 5 games

Date	Opp	PTS	REB	AST	P+R+A	R+A
2026-07-19	vs CHI	8	5	1	14	6
2026-07-17	@TOR	23	12	2	37	14
2026-07-13	vs LA	23	13	2	38	15
2026-07-10	vs SEA	18	11	2	31	13
2026-07-04	vs GS	17	13	3	33	16
AVG		17.8	10.8	2.0	30.6	12.8

🔮 Next-game projection

Cat	Last-5	Proj	Lean	Trend
PTS	17.8	16.8	under	↗ heating
REB	10.8	10.6	under	→ steady
AST	2.0	2.0	under	→ steady
P+R+A	30.6	28.9	under	↗ heating
R+A	12.8	12.5	under	→ steady

🛡️ Opp defense: DAL allows 83.0 pts (rank 4 of 13, tough) · away · 11d rest

Not modeled (not guessed): position-specific defense, teammate injuries, game pace.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

⭐ Breanna Stewart (NY)

Next: @ LA · 2026-07-29

📊 Last 5 games

Date	Opp	PTS	REB	AST	P+R+A	R+A
2026-07-22	vs CHI	20	9	4	33	13
2026-07-21	@DAL	33	13	8	54	21
2026-07-19	@IND	26	8	3	37	11
2026-07-12	@TOR	22	8	2	32	10
2026-07-11	@MIN	17	7	3	27	10
AVG		23.6	9.0	4.0	36.6	13.0

🔮 Next-game projection

Cat	Last-5	Proj	Lean	Trend
PTS	23.6	24.6	over	→ steady
REB	9.0	8.8	under	↗ heating
AST	4.0	3.9	under	↗ heating
P+R+A	36.6	38.2	over	→ steady
R+A	13.0	12.7	under	↗ heating

🛡️ Opp defense: LA allows 91.6 pts (rank 14 of 13, soft) · away · 7d rest

Not modeled (not guessed): position-specific defense, teammate injuries, game pace.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

⭐ Kelsey Mitchell (IND)

Next: @ SEA · 2026-07-29

📊 Last 5 games

Date	Opp	PTS	REB	AST	P+R+A	R+A
2026-07-23	vs CON	23	4	2	29	6
2026-07-19	vs NY	33	0	1	34	1
2026-07-17	vs SEA	30	1	0	31	1
2026-07-16	vs GS	20	1	4	25	5
2026-07-13	@LV	27	3	3	33	6
AVG		26.6	1.8	2.0	30.4	3.8

🔮 Next-game projection

Cat	Last-5	Proj	Lean	Trend
PTS	26.6	26.2	under	→ steady
REB	1.8	1.8	under	↘ cooling
AST	2.0	2.0	under	↘ cooling
P+R+A	30.4	30.0	under	→ steady
R+A	3.8	3.7	under	↘ cooling

🛡️ Opp defense: SEA allows 86.5 pts (rank 9 of 13, soft) · away · 6d rest

Not modeled (not guessed): position-specific defense, teammate injuries, game pace.

CONFIDENCE: LOW

⭐ Caitlin Clark (IND)

Next: @ SEA · 2026-07-29

📊 Last 5 games

Date	Opp	PTS	REB	AST	P+R+A	R+A
2026-07-23	vs CON	27	2	11	40	13
2026-07-19	vs NY	17	2	7	26	9
2026-07-17	vs SEA	45	2	10	57	12
2026-07-16	vs GS	13	3	6	22	9
2026-07-13	@LV	12	7	6	25	13
AVG		22.8	3.2	8.0	34.0	11.2

🔮 Next-game projection

Cat	Last-5	Proj	Lean	Trend
PTS	22.8	22.5	under	→ steady
REB	3.2	3.1	under	↗ heating
AST	8.0	7.8	under	↗ heating
P+R+A	34.0	33.5	under	→ steady
R+A	11.2	11.0	under	↗ heating

🛡️ Opp defense: SEA allows 86.5 pts (rank 9 of 13, soft) · away · 6d rest

Not modeled (not guessed): position-specific defense, teammate injuries, game pace.

CONFIDENCE: LOW

⭐ Olivia Miles (MIN)

Next: vs TOR · 2026-07-29

📊 Last 5 games

Date	Opp	PTS	REB	AST	P+R+A	R+A
2026-07-22	@SEA	13	3	6	22	9
2026-07-21	@SEA	32	8	8	48	16
2026-07-19	vs POR	14	4	10	28	14
2026-07-15	vs LA	18	4	5	27	9
2026-07-14	vs PHX	33	3	8	44	11
AVG		22.0	4.4	7.4	33.8	11.8

🔮 Next-game projection

Cat	Last-5	Proj	Lean	Trend
PTS	22.0	24.0	over	→ steady
REB	4.4	4.5	over	→ steady
AST	7.4	7.5	over	↗ heating
P+R+A	33.8	36.8	over	→ steady
R+A	11.8	12.0	over	↗ heating

🛡️ Opp defense: TOR allows 91.9 pts (rank 15 of 13, soft) · home · 7d rest

Not modeled (not guessed): position-specific defense, teammate injuries, game pace.

🏆 Plays I feel best about

Paige Bueckers vs ATL: proj 23.6 pts / 35.6 P+R+A (medium confidence)
Allisha Gray @DAL: proj 20.6 pts / 26.3 P+R+A (medium confidence)
Angel Reese @DAL: proj 16.8 pts / 28.9 P+R+A (medium confidence)

These lean on measured factors only. They are projections, not locks — the WNBA data is small-sample and the market is sharp.

📊 Model Scoreboard — honest accuracy

Our model, graded on 6,032 logged picks: hitters got a hit 60.4% of the time versus an average quote of 65.6%, Brier 0.242 (lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip). Green rows mean the quote matched reality; the fresh calibration pulls the high bands back toward honest.

Quoted band	We said	Actually hit	n
50-60%	57%	56%	1477
60-70%	65%	61%	2786
70-80%	74%	64%	1419
80-101%	83%	68%	275

🔷 Head-to-head on the same 45 hitter-game(s) both sources called: our model hit 77.8% (Brier 0.189), Baseball Musings 77.8% (Brier 0.180). More accurate so far: Baseball Musings.