⭐ Tommy's Players

✔ UPDATEDSep 11, 2026 at 3:01 PM CTfresh lines, lineups & odds

A curated watch list of the players Tommy follows, refreshed daily with each one's recent form and an honest next-game read.

⚾ Tommy's Team (MLB hits)🏀 Tommy's Players (WNBA)📊 Model Scoreboard

⚾ Tommy's Team — Hit Watch

Chance each hitter records at least one hit in his next game (today if his team plays), using the same model as the MLB page: a Log5 base adjusted for platoon (his split vs the starter's hand), ballpark, recent form, weather, Statcast xBA, and the pitcher's contact rate. Each is priced against the best "to record a hit" number across US books (line shopping), and marked BET only when our probability beats that price (positive expected value), never just because it is likely. Cross-checked against Baseball Musings (David Pinto's daily Log5 / Neural-Net hit picks): where both models agree, that's a consensus pick. Projections, not guarantees — confirm the lineup before betting.

⚾ Otto Lopez (Marlins)

vs Dodgers · batting 2nd · .303 hitter · L5 .389 · ✅ confirmed in today's lineup

64% to record a hit

our 64% = model 68% blended with market 62%

✘ not +EV — PASS (-1.8% at best price -186 @ betrivers; too juiced)

.303 hitter batting 2nd in the order, facing a 22%-K starter; hot lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Yordan Alvarez (Astros)

@ Rays · batting 2nd · .310 hitter · L5 .143 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

63% to record a hit

our 63% = model 61% blended with market 65%

✘ not +EV — PASS (-7.3% at best price -216 @ draftkings; too juiced)

.310 hitter batting 2nd in the order, facing a 25%-K starter; cold lately.

Baseball Musings is higher than us — softer consensus.

⚾ Luis Arraez (Phillies)

@ Braves · batting 4th · .318 hitter · L5 .312 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

63% to record a hit

our 63% = model 62% blended with market 64%

✘ not +EV — PASS (-7.1% at best price -213 @ draftkings; too juiced)

🔷 Baseball Musings ranks him a top hit pick: 72% vs Chris Sale (NN 71% · LogReg 72%)

.318 hitter batting 4th in the order, facing a high-strikeout starter (29% K), but the bat carries it; outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Jung Hoo Lee (Giants)

vs Padres · batting 5th · .281 hitter · L5 .222 · projected order (lineup not posted yet)

62% to record a hit

our 62% = model 59% blended with market 63%

✘ not +EV — PASS (-7.8% at best price -208 @ betonlineag; too juiced)

.281 hitter batting 5th in the order, facing a 20%-K starter; tough platoon vs LHP, cold lately.

Baseball Musings is higher than us — softer consensus.

⚾ Ernie Clement (Blue Jays)

vs Orioles · batting 9th · .273 hitter · L5 .188 · ✅ confirmed in today's lineup

63% to record a hit

our 63% = model 62% blended with market 63%

✘ not +EV — PASS (-4.6% at best price -190 @ betrivers; too juiced)

🔷 Baseball Musings ranks him a top hit pick: 70% vs Chris Bassitt (NN 70% · LogReg 70%)

.273 hitter batting 9th in the order, facing a contact-prone starter (17% K) — lots of balls in play; cold lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Xavier Edwards

⚠ MIA play vs LAD today but he is not in the projected lineup yet — a rest day, or the lineup is not posted. Recheck near first pitch.

⚾ Jacob Wilson

⚠ ATH play vs SEA today but he is not in the projected lineup yet — a rest day, or the lineup is not posted. Recheck near first pitch.

Agreement — Baseball Musings lands in the same range.

⚾ Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals)

@ Red Sox · batting 2nd · .282 hitter · L5 .250 · ✅ confirmed in today's lineup

68% to record a hit

our 68% = model 66% blended with market 69%

✘ not +EV — PASS (-7.4% at best price -274 @ draftkings; too juiced)

🔷 Baseball Musings ranks him a top hit pick: 70% vs Sonny Gray (NN 68% · LogReg 70%)

.282 hitter batting 2nd in the order, facing a 22%-K starter; xBA says he's due (unlucky).

⚾ Nick Kurtz

⚠ ATH play vs SEA today but he is not in the projected lineup yet — a rest day, or the lineup is not posted. Recheck near first pitch.

⚾ Jac Caglianone

⚠ KC play @ BOS today but he is not in the projected lineup yet — a rest day, or the lineup is not posted. Recheck near first pitch.

Agreement — Baseball Musings lands in the same range.

⚾ Yandy Diaz (Rays)

vs Astros · batting leadoff · .305 hitter · L5 .273 · ✅ confirmed in today's lineup

64% to record a hit

✘ not +EV — PASS (-14.0% at best price -286 @ betrivers; too juiced)

🔷 Baseball Musings ranks him a top hit pick: 69% vs Miguel Ullola (NN 69% · LogReg 69%)

.305 hitter batting leadoff, facing a 25%-K starter.

Baseball Musings is higher than us — softer consensus.

⚾ Nick Gonzales (Pirates)

@ Cubs · batting 6th · .304 hitter · L5 .188 · ✅ confirmed in today's lineup

58% to record a hit

✔ +EV — BET (+31.8% at best price +128 @ williamhill_us)

🔷 Baseball Musings ranks him a top hit pick: 69% vs Shota Imanaga (NN 69% · LogReg 67%)

.304 hitter batting 6th in the order, facing a 24%-K starter; tough platoon vs LHP, cold lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Jake McCarthy (Rockies)

@ Tigers · batting leadoff · .293 hitter · L5 .381 · ✅ confirmed in today's lineup

67% to record a hit

our 67% = model 71% blended with market 65%

✘ not +EV — PASS (-2.5% at best price -217 @ betonlineag; too juiced)

.293 hitter batting leadoff, facing a contact-prone starter (18% K) — lots of balls in play; hot lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⚾ Brandon Marsh

⚠ PHI play @ ATL today but he is not in the projected lineup yet — a rest day, or the lineup is not posted. Recheck near first pitch.

Baseball Musings is higher than us — softer consensus.

⚾ Chandler Simpson (Rays)

vs Astros · batting 6th · .308 hitter · L5 .238 · ✅ confirmed in today's lineup

63% to record a hit

our 63% = model 59% blended with market 65%

✘ not +EV — PASS (-8.9% at best price -230 @ draftkings; too juiced)

🔷 Baseball Musings ranks him a top hit pick: 72% vs Miguel Ullola (NN 71% · LogReg 72%)

.308 hitter batting 6th in the order, facing a 25%-K starter; cold lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

🔷 Baseball Musings also likes (strong hit picks not on your list): Freddie Freeman (70%), Michael Harris II (69%), Randal Grichuk (69%), Ceddanne Rafaela (69%), Romy Gonzalez (69%), Jake Mangum (68%).

⭐ Tommy's Players

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📊 Model Scoreboard — honest accuracy

Our model, graded on 16,566 logged picks: hitters got a hit 60.2% of the time versus an average quote of 62.1%, Brier 0.237 (lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip). Green rows mean the quote matched reality; the fresh calibration pulls the high bands back toward honest.

Quoted band	We said	Actually hit	n
50-60%	56%	55%	6185
60-70%	64%	64%	8032
70-80%	74%	66%	1676
80-101%	83%	68%	276

🔷 Head-to-head on the same 546 hitter-game(s) both sources called: our model hit 72.5% (Brier 0.200), Baseball Musings 72.5% (Brier 0.200). More accurate so far: our model.