⚾ MLB — All Models

✔ UPDATEDJul 28, 2026 at 12:04 AMfresh lines, lineups & odds

💰 +EV 🎯 Best Bets 🏏 Hits 🔥 Strikeouts ⚾ NRFI 📈 Hot Hitters 📊 Accuracy

💵 How we're doing — profit, not just hit rate

A pro is graded on return and on beating the closing line (CLV), not on how often a pick wins. Here is the real scoreboard.

Accuracy

78%

212-60 · 272 bets

ROI

+13%

+5.7u · 45 priced

Beat the close

36%

avg +0.6% CLV · 33 bets

Why three numbers, not one: accuracy alone can mislead — a 76% record profits at -110 but LOSES at -400. ROI is the real profit at the prices we actually posted; CLV (did we beat the closing line?) is the honest leading indicator of edge — beating the close >55% predicts profit even through short-run variance. ROI & CLV fill in as we log each pick's odds; we show them even when they're unflattering.

💰 +EV Best Bets — 1 to BET, 0 to PASS (priced vs the live market)

✔ +EV — BET 5.0 units

🔥 Troy Melton

SP · Tigers vs Orioles · Home

+11.4% EV · Over 4.5 Ks

model 72% · best -180 @ fanatics · edge +7.3pts

How to read this: every Best Bet is priced against the live market and labeled in plain words. A pick marked ✔ +EV — BET is a profitable play long-term (our number beats the price you can actually bet). A pick marked ✘ NOT +EV — PASS means the model likes it but the price is too juiced to profit, so skip it. The EV% figure is the same signal: a plus number means bet, a minus number means pass. Stakes are ¼-Kelly, capped at 5% of bankroll for the day. Odds are the best available across US books. Research tool, not betting advice.

Market-anchored: hit probabilities are blended 70% toward the devigged two-way "to record a hit" line, so picks track the sharp market and our model only tilts it. Strikeouts stay purely model-based (no two-way line to devig). Anchored cards show the blend: our % = model % + market %.

3 pick(s) had no market line at our number and are not shown.

🎯 Best Bets — highest-confidence picks (graded daily; target 75%)

🔥 Chris Sale

SP · Braves @ Mets · Away

77% Over 5.5 Ks

strong 30% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 23%; ~7.6 K over ~24 batters.

🔥 Gerrit Cole

SP · Yankees @ White Sox · Away

76% Over 4.5 Ks

solid 26% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 23%; ~6.4 K over ~23 batters.

🔥 Reid Detmers

SP · Angels vs Astros · Home

74% Over 4.5 Ks

strong 28% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 21%; ~6.2 K over ~23 batters.

🔥 Troy Melton

SP · Tigers vs Orioles · Home

72% Over 4.5 Ks

solid 23% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 24%; ~6.0 K over ~23 batters.

🎰 Suggested Parlays — each across different games (combined odds; parlays are higher-risk)

Strikeout Parlay

🔥 Chris Sale Braves @ Mets · Away · Over 5.5 Ks · 77%

🔥 Gerrit Cole Yankees @ White Sox · Away · Over 4.5 Ks · 76%

🔥 Reid Detmers Angels vs Astros · Home · Over 4.5 Ks · 74%

all 3 over: ~44%

📊 How accurate has the model been? (graded vs actual results)

Last game · 2026-07-27 ✓

🎯 Best Bets: — 0/0

🔥 Strikeouts O/U-5.5: 0%

🏏 Hits top-6: 100% 1/1

⚾ NRFI leans: 100% 1/1

Last 5 graded days

🎯 Best Bets: 81% 21/26

🔥 Strikeouts O/U-5.5: 74% 121 starts

🏏 Hits top-6: 79% 19/24

⚾ NRFI leans: 51% 32/63

⭐ Top 5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (combined prop)

1. James Wood

RF · Nationals vs Blue Jays · Home · slot 1

3.16 proj H+R+RBI

over 1.5: 82% · H 1.33 / R 1.04 / RBI 0.79

.273 hitter batting leadoff, facing a 19%-K starter; cold lately.

2. CJ Abrams

SS · Nationals vs Blue Jays · Home · slot 4

3.10 proj H+R+RBI

over 1.5: 82% · H 1.50 / R 0.72 / RBI 0.88

.297 hitter batting 4th in the order, facing a 19%-K starter; hot lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

3. Ryan Jeffers

C · Twins vs Royals · Home · slot 3

2.99 proj H+R+RBI

over 1.5: 80% · H 1.33 / R 0.76 / RBI 0.89

.293 hitter batting 3rd in the order, facing a 19%-K starter; outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

4. Esmerlyn Valdez

RF · Pirates vs D-backs · Home · slot 4

2.96 proj H+R+RBI

over 1.5: 79% · H 1.09 / R 0.81 / RBI 1.06

.290 hitter batting 4th in the order, facing a contact-prone starter (18% K) — lots of balls in play; cold lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

5. Jordan Walker

RF · Cardinals vs Cubs · Home · slot 2

2.94 proj H+R+RBI

over 1.5: 79% · H 1.37 / R 0.73 / RBI 0.85

.286 hitter batting 2nd in the order, facing a contact-prone starter (18% K) — lots of balls in play; cold lately.

⭐ Top 6 hit picks to prioritize

1. Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF · Padres vs Rockies · Home · slot 1 · 0.277 AVG · vs SP 17%K 🟢contact

73% to get a hit

.277 hitter batting leadoff, facing a contact-prone starter (17% K) — lots of balls in play.

2. CJ Abrams

SS · Nationals vs Blue Jays · Home · slot 4 · 0.297 AVG · vs SP 19%K 🟢contact

70% to get a hit

.297 hitter batting 4th in the order, facing a 19%-K starter; hot lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

3. Trea Turner

SS · Phillies @ Marlins · Away · slot 1 · 0.245 AVG · vs SP 19%K 🟢contact

68% to get a hit

.245 hitter batting leadoff, facing a 19%-K starter; hot lately.

4. Gabriel Moreno

C · D-backs @ Pirates · Away · slot 3 · 0.313 AVG · vs SP 21%K 🟢contact

68% to get a hit

.313 hitter batting 3rd in the order, facing a 21%-K starter; hot lately.

5. Ryan Jeffers

C · Twins vs Royals · Home · slot 3 · 0.293 AVG · vs SP 19%K 🟢contact

68% to get a hit

.293 hitter batting 3rd in the order, facing a 19%-K starter; outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

6. Paul Goldschmidt

1B · Yankees @ White Sox · Away · slot 1 · 0.258 AVG · vs SP 19%K 🟢contact

68% to get a hit

.258 hitter batting leadoff, facing a contact-prone starter (19% K) — lots of balls in play; favorable platoon vs LHP, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⭐ Top 6 strikeout plays

1. Gavin Williams

SP · Guardians @ Reds · Away · K 31% vs oppK 25%

8.1 proj K

over 5.5: 82% · over 4.5: 91%

elite 31% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 25%; ~8.1 K over ~24 batters.

2. Chris Sale

SP · Braves @ Mets · Away · K 30% vs oppK 23%

7.6 proj K

over 5.5: 77% · over 4.5: 88%

strong 30% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 23%; ~7.6 K over ~24 batters.

3. Gerrit Cole

SP · Yankees @ White Sox · Away · K 26% vs oppK 23%

6.4 proj K

over 5.5: 61% · over 4.5: 76%

solid 26% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 23%; ~6.4 K over ~23 batters.

4. Reid Detmers

SP · Angels vs Astros · Home · K 28% vs oppK 21%

6.2 proj K

over 5.5: 59% · over 4.5: 74%

strong 28% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 21%; ~6.2 K over ~23 batters.

5. Troy Melton

SP · Tigers vs Orioles · Home · K 23% vs oppK 24%

6.0 proj K

over 5.5: 56% · over 4.5: 72%

solid 23% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 24%; ~6.0 K over ~23 batters.

6. Peter Lambert

SP · Astros @ Angels · Away · K 23% vs oppK 25%

6.0 proj K

over 5.5: 55% · over 4.5: 71%

solid 23% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 25%; ~6.0 K over ~24 batters.

🏏 Batting Props — Hits / Runs / RBIs

252 batters

#	Player	Pos	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Slot	AVG	opp SP K%	P(hit)	exp R	exp RBI	H+R+RBI	o1.5
1	Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Padres	Rockies	Home	1	0.277 L10 0.275	17%	73%	0.60	0.54	2.83 L10 3.10	77%
2	CJ Abrams	SS	Nationals	Blue Jays	Home	4	0.297 L10 0.487	19%	70%	0.72	0.88	3.10 L10 4.40	82%
3	Trea Turner	SS	Phillies	Marlins	Away	1	0.245 L10 0.333	19%	68%	0.77	0.47	2.63 L10 3.10	74%
4	Gabriel Moreno	C	D-backs	Pirates	Away	3	0.313 L10 0.371	21%	68%	0.68	0.65	2.70 L10 3.00	75%
5	Ryan Jeffers	C	Twins	Royals	Home	3	0.293 L10 0.289	19%	68%	0.76	0.89	2.99 L10 2.40	80%
6	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	Yankees	White Sox	Away	1	0.258 L10 0.250	19%	68%	0.61	0.73	2.72 L10 1.10	75%
7	Jordan Walker	RF	Cardinals	Cubs	Home	2	0.286 L10 0.220	18%	67%	0.73	0.85	2.94 L10 1.50	79%
8	Jake Mangum	LF	Pirates	D-backs	Home	1	0.301 L10 0.244	18%	67%	0.61	0.40	2.35 L10 1.40	68%
9	Brandon Lowe	2B	Pirates	D-backs	Home	2	0.245 L10 0.257	18%	67%	0.73	0.75	2.81 L10 1.60	77%
10	James Wood	RF	Nationals	Blue Jays	Home	1	0.273 L10 0.220	19%	67%	1.04	0.79	3.16 L10 2.40	82%
11	Tommy Edman	2B	Dodgers	Mariners	Home	6	0.337 L10 0.314	21%	67%	0.64	0.64	2.58 L10 2.50	73%
12	Ty France	1B	Padres	Rockies	Home	4	0.286 L10 0.381	17%	66%	0.54	0.76	2.90 L10 3.60	79%
13	Jake Cronenworth	2B	Padres	Rockies	Home	2	0.217 L10 0.333	17%	66%	0.62	0.39	2.60 L10 2.10	73%
14	Chandler Simpson	LF	Rays	Rangers	Home	5	0.296 L10 0.457	22%	66%	0.52	0.27	2.08 L10 2.50	61%
15	Jase Bowen	LF	Padres	Rockies	Home	7	0.148 L10 0.250	17%	66%	0.55	0.43	2.26 L10 1.10	66%
16	Byron Buxton	DH	Twins	Royals	Home	2	0.264 L10 0.171	19%	66%	0.76	0.62	2.60 L10 0.90	73%
17	Cole Young	2B	Mariners	Dodgers	Away	1	0.256 L10 0.282	22%	66%	0.60	0.58	2.49 L10 2.10	71%
18	Dillon Dingler	C	Tigers	Orioles	Home	5	0.273 L10 0.387	24%	66%	0.62	0.76	2.66 L10 2.60	74%
19	Luis Rengifo	3B	Padres	Rockies	Home	6	0.237 L10 0.412	17%	66%	0.50	0.50	2.59 L10 2.90	73%
20	JJ Wetherholt	2B	Cardinals	Cubs	Home	1	0.253 L10 0.195	18%	66%	0.77	0.49	2.56 L10 2.10	73%
21	Kevin McGonigle	SS	Tigers	Orioles	Home	2	0.284 L10 0.289	24%	66%	0.71	0.43	2.36 L10 1.60	68%
22	Wilyer Abreu	RF	Red Sox	Athletics	Away	3	0.253 L10 0.184	24%	66%	0.59	0.58	2.45 L10 2.20	70%
23	Otto Lopez	SS	Marlins	Phillies	Home	1	0.330 L10 0.216	23%	66%	0.70	0.55	2.54 L10 1.30	72%
24	Willson Contreras	1B	Red Sox	Athletics	Away	4	0.288 L10 0.300	24%	66%	0.66	0.80	2.73 L10 2.10	76%
25	Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	Cubs	Cardinals	Away	1	0.290 L10 0.289	22%	66%	0.80	0.70	2.78 L10 2.80	77%
26	Joc Pederson	DH	Rangers	Rays	Away	1	0.254 L10 0.389	24%	66%	0.71	0.66	2.65 L10 3.30	74%
27	Riley Greene	LF	Tigers	Orioles	Home	4	0.283 L10 0.229	24%	66%	0.63	0.58	2.34 L10 2.20	68%
28	Nathan Lukes	RF	Blue Jays	Nationals	Away	1	0.284 L10 0.258	26%	66%	0.54	0.41	2.22 L10 1.10	65%
29	Drake Baldwin	C	Braves	Mets	Away	1	0.278 L10 0.405	27%	65%	0.81	0.79	2.86 L10 2.70	78%
30	Jackson Merrill	CF	Padres	Rockies	Home	5	0.231 L10 0.333	17%	65%	0.53	0.49	2.38 L10 2.80	69%
31	Leo Jiménez	3B	Marlins	Phillies	Home	6	0.210 L10 0.250	23%	65%	0.49	0.37	2.09 L10 1.20	62%
32	Gleyber Torres	DH	Tigers	Orioles	Home	3	0.270 L10 0.212	24%	65%	0.67	0.48	2.31 L10 1.20	67%
33	Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	Red Sox	Athletics	Away	2	0.279 L10 0.262	24%	65%	0.58	0.55	2.37 L10 2.60	69%
34	Bryce Harper	1B	Phillies	Marlins	Away	3	0.253 L10 0.176	19%	65%	0.73	0.73	2.68 L10 1.60	75%
35	Manny Machado	DH	Padres	Rockies	Home	3	0.210 L10 0.268	17%	65%	0.62	0.72	2.80 L10 2.70	77%
36	Heriberto Hernández	LF	Marlins	Phillies	Home	3	0.243 L10 0.275	23%	65%	0.51	0.69	2.42 L10 1.60	70%
37	Daylen Lile	DH	Nationals	Blue Jays	Home	2	0.243 L10 0.212	19%	65%	0.60	0.58	2.40 L10 1.80	69%
38	Colt Keith	3B	Tigers	Orioles	Home	1	0.255 L10 0.357	24%	65%	0.64	0.43	2.40 L10 1.60	69%
39	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	Blue Jays	Nationals	Away	2	0.263 L10 0.270	26%	65%	0.64	0.54	2.40 L10 1.60	69%
40	Jahmai Jones	DH	Red Sox	Athletics	Away	1	0.155 L10 0.250	24%	64%	0.50	0.53	2.25 L10 1.00	66%
41	Junior Caminero	3B	Rays	Rangers	Home	3	0.282 L10 0.317	22%	64%	0.71	0.69	2.61 L10 2.10	73%
42	Yandy Díaz	DH	Rays	Rangers	Home	1	0.303 L10 0.182	22%	64%	0.67	0.71	2.59 L10 2.00	73%
43	Brandon Marsh	LF	Phillies	Marlins	Away	4	0.286 L10 0.125	19%	64%	0.63	0.55	2.38 L10 0.80	69%
44	Nico Hoerner	2B	Cubs	Cardinals	Away	5	0.247 L10 0.349	22%	64%	0.44	0.46	2.08 L10 2.60	62%
45	Wyatt Langford	LF	Rangers	Rays	Away	2	0.284 L10 0.325	24%	64%	0.69	0.60	2.49 L10 2.80	71%
46	Kyle Stowers	1B	Marlins	Phillies	Home	2	0.235 L10 0.205	23%	64%	0.55	0.66	2.41 L10 1.20	69%
47	Ben Rice	DH	Yankees	White Sox	Away	2	0.273 L10 0.216	19%	64%	0.80	0.84	2.84 L10 1.60	78%
48	Ryan O'Hearn	1B	Pirates	D-backs	Home	5	0.277 L10 0.182	18%	64%	0.64	0.80	2.62 L10 1.50	74%
49	Michael Busch	1B	Cubs	Cardinals	Away	3	0.247 L10 0.333	22%	64%	0.54	0.63	2.36 L10 3.10	68%
50	Jacob Young	CF	Nationals	Blue Jays	Home	6	0.235 L10 0.323	19%	64%	0.54	0.49	2.20 L10 1.90	64%
51	Alejandro Kirk	C	Blue Jays	Nationals	Away	3	0.226 L10 0.308	26%	64%	0.42	0.50	2.10 L10 1.20	62%
52	Kody Clemens	1B	Twins	Royals	Home	5	0.243 L10 0.220	19%	64%	0.60	0.60	2.37 L10 1.60	68%
53	Luis García Jr.	1B	Nationals	Blue Jays	Home	8	0.282 L10 0.250	19%	64%	0.52	0.76	2.44 L10 1.20	70%
54	Brooks Lee	3B	Twins	Royals	Home	8	0.247 L10 0.211	19%	64%	0.48	0.55	2.08 L10 1.70	62%
55	Jared Triolo	3B	Pirates	D-backs	Home	6	0.243 L10 0.385	18%	64%	0.45	0.39	2.00 L10 1.80	59%
56	Xavier Edwards	2B	Marlins	Phillies	Home	4	0.287 L10 0.135	23%	64%	0.56	0.43	2.16 L10 0.60	64%
57	Iván Herrera	DH	Cardinals	Cubs	Home	3	0.244 L10 0.186	18%	64%	0.73	0.52	2.42 L10 1.70	70%
58	Jasson Domínguez	RF	Yankees	White Sox	Away	4	0.226 L10 0.194	19%	64%	0.47	0.41	2.04 L10 1.40	60%
59	Alec Bohm	3B	Phillies	Marlins	Away	5	0.223 L10 0.289	19%	64%	0.41	0.62	2.19 L10 2.50	64%
60	Andruw Monasterio	SS	Red Sox	Athletics	Away	8	0.251 L10 0.367	24%	64%	0.48	0.41	2.03 L10 2.10	60%

AVG shows the season number and H+R+RBI shows tonight's projection, each with the player's last-10-game average (L10) beneath. A rising L10 means the hitter is hot lately. Projected lineups = each team's most recent batting order; actual lineups can differ. Method note: a Log5 base (batter average vs the starter) adjusted by five capped factors — platoon (the batter's split vs the starter's handedness), ballpark (Coors up, pitcher parks down), recent form (last-10 blended in), weather (warm air helps a little), and Statcast xBA (regress lucky/unlucky averages toward the batter's actual contact quality). Following Baseball Musings (David Pinto), hitters facing LOW-strikeout (contact) pitchers also get a boost — see 'opp SP K%' (lower = better for hitters). H+R+RBI = projected hits+runs+RBIs (o1.5 = P(over 1.5)). Runs & RBIs are noisier than hits. Factors are priors, not yet backtested — research tool, not betting advice.

🔥 Strikeout Projections

27 starters — the most-validated model

#	Pitcher	Pos	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	K%	opp K%	proj K	DK O/U	o4.5	o5.5	o6.5
1	Gavin Williams	SP	Guardians	Reds	Away	31%	25%	8.1	—	91%	82%	70%
2	Chris Sale	SP	Braves	Mets	Away	30%	23%	7.6	—	88%	77%	64%
3	Gerrit Cole	SP	Yankees	White Sox	Away	26%	23%	6.4	—	76%	61%	45%
4	Reid Detmers	SP	Angels	Astros	Home	28%	21%	6.2	—	74%	59%	43%
5	Troy Melton	SP	Tigers	Orioles	Home	23%	24%	6.0	5.5 Over · 56% o	72%	56%	40%
6	Peter Lambert	SP	Astros	Angels	Away	23%	25%	6.0	—	71%	55%	39%
7	Sandy Alcantara	SP	Marlins	Phillies	Home	18%	24%	5.5	—	65%	48%	32%
8	Logan Henderson	SP	Brewers	Giants	Away	32%	20%	5.5	—	65%	48%	32%
9	Taj Bradley	SP	Twins	Royals	Home	27%	22%	5.5	6.5 Under · 31% o	64%	47%	31%
10	Griffin Jax	SP	Rays	Rangers	Home	25%	22%	5.4	—	62%	45%	30%
11	Brady Singer	SP	Reds	Guardians	Home	19%	22%	5.1	—	58%	41%	26%
12	Anthony Kay	SP	White Sox	Yankees	Home	18%	25%	5.1	—	57%	40%	25%
13	Aaron Nola	SP	Phillies	Marlins	Away	24%	21%	5.1	—	57%	40%	25%
14	Michael King	SP	Padres	Rockies	Home	21%	22%	5.1	5.5 Under · 40% o	57%	40%	25%
15	Gage Jump	SP	Athletics	Red Sox	Home	25%	20%	5.0	—	56%	39%	24%
16	Christian Scott	SP	Mets	Braves	Home	29%	21%	5.0	—	56%	38%	24%
17	Jake Bennett	SP	Red Sox	Athletics	Away	18%	24%	4.9	—	54%	37%	23%
18	Dean Kremer	SP	Orioles	Tigers	Away	26%	23%	4.9	4.5 Over · 53% o	53%	36%	22%
19	Cade Cavalli	SP	Nationals	Blue Jays	Home	27%	19%	4.8	—	51%	34%	20%
20	Landen Roupp	SP	Giants	Brewers	Home	25%	21%	4.7	—	51%	34%	20%
21	Seth Lugo	SP	Royals	Twins	Away	19%	21%	4.5	4.5 Under · 46% o	46%	29%	17%
22	Bubba Chandler	SP	Pirates	D-backs	Home	20%	20%	4.4	—	45%	29%	16%
23	Michael Lorenzen	SP	Rockies	Padres	Away	16%	22%	4.2	3.5 Over · 61% o	42%	25%	14%
24	Colin Rea	SP	Cubs	Cardinals	Away	18%	21%	4.2	—	42%	25%	14%
25	Shane Bieber	SP	Blue Jays	Nationals	Away	17%	20%	4.2	—	41%	24%	13%
26	Luis Castillo	SP	Mariners	Dodgers	Away	20%	21%	4.1	—	39%	23%	12%
27	Brandon Pfaadt	SP	D-backs	Pirates	Away	16%	24%	3.8	—	34%	19%	9%

projK = projected strikeouts. DK O/U = DraftKings' actual posted line with our lean (the side our projection favors) and P(over it); this judges us against the number the book really hangs, not a fixed line. o4.5/o5.5/o6.5 = P(over those fixed lines) for reference. Backtested: MAE 1.85 (beats baselines), proj/actual corr 0.39, O/U-5.5 62% — the most reliable model here. Research tool, not betting advice.

⚾ NRFI / YRFI

16 games

🟢 Strongest NRFI lean: MIL @ SF 73%

🔴 Strongest YRFI lean: KC @ MIN 78%

Brewers @ Giants NRFI LEAN

📍 Oracle Park · park factor 95

☀️ 69°F · 💨 18 mph W · ☔ 0% · Clear

73%

NRFI lean

27%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 54% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (73% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 54% NRFI.

Logan Henderson (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 19% over 8 starts (league ~27%).
Landen Roupp (home SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 22% over 20 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Milwaukee Brewers score in the 1st 18% of games (n=25), San Francisco Giants 25% (n=25).
Pitcher-friendly park (factor 95) nudges toward NRFI.

Mariners @ Dodgers NRFI LEAN

📍 UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · park factor 100

🌡️ forecast posts closer to game day

68%

NRFI lean

32%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 53% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (68% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 53% NRFI.

Luis Castillo (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 35% over 16 starts (league ~27%).
⚠️ TBD (home SP): no starts logged yet — using league average (~27%). Low confidence.
1st-inning offense: Seattle Mariners score in the 1st 5% of games (n=25), Los Angeles Dodgers 21% (n=25).

Red Sox @ Athletics NRFI LEAN

📍 Sutter Health Park · park factor 100

☀️ 94°F · 💨 10 mph SW · ☔ 0% · Clear

68%

NRFI lean

32%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 53% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (68% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 53% NRFI.

Jake Bennett (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 10% over 10 starts (league ~27%).
Gage Jump (home SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 21% over 11 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Boston Red Sox score in the 1st 34% of games (n=25), Athletics 15% (n=25).

Phillies @ Marlins NRFI LEAN

📍 loanDepot park · park factor 100

🏟️ Indoor · roof closed (weather not a factor)

62%

NRFI lean

38%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 51% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (62% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 51% NRFI.

Aaron Nola (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 25% over 21 starts (league ~27%).
Sandy Alcantara (home SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 20% over 22 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Philadelphia Phillies score in the 1st 31% of games (n=25), Miami Marlins 21% (n=25).

Braves @ Mets NRFI LEAN

📍 Citi Field · park factor 100

☁️ 76°F · 💨 16 mph S · ☔ 54% · Overcast

62%

NRFI lean

38%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 51% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (62% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 51% NRFI.

Chris Sale (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 14% over 19 starts (league ~27%).
Christian Scott (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 28% over 14 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Atlanta Braves score in the 1st 28% of games (n=25), New York Mets 25% (n=25).

Astros @ Angels NO EDGE

📍 Angel Stadium · park factor 100

☀️ 79°F · 💨 7 mph SW · ☔ 0% · Clear

55%

NRFI lean

45%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 50% NRFI (no proven edge)

Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 50% NRFI.

Peter Lambert (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 20% over 17 starts (league ~27%).
Reid Detmers (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 25% over 21 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Houston Astros score in the 1st 28% of games (n=25), Los Angeles Angels 34% (n=25).

D-backs @ Pirates NO EDGE

📍 PNC Park · park factor 100

☀️ 78°F · 💨 10 mph NW · ☔ 6% · Clear

53%

NRFI lean

47%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 50% NRFI (no proven edge)

Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 50% NRFI.

Brandon Pfaadt (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 26% over 8 starts (league ~27%).
Bubba Chandler (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 22% over 19 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Arizona Diamondbacks score in the 1st 41% of games (n=25), Pittsburgh Pirates 18% (n=25).

Guardians @ Reds NO EDGE

📍 Great American Ball Park · park factor 106

🌤️ 82°F · 💨 10 mph N · ☔ 0% · Mostly clear

51%

NRFI lean

49%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 49% NRFI (no proven edge)

Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 49% NRFI.

⚠️ TBD (away SP): no starts logged yet — using league average (~27%). Low confidence.
⚠️ TBD (home SP): no starts logged yet — using league average (~27%). Low confidence.
1st-inning offense: Cleveland Guardians score in the 1st 22% of games (n=24), Cincinnati Reds 32% (n=24).
Hitter-friendly park (factor 106) nudges toward YRFI.

Yankees @ White Sox NO EDGE

📍 Rate Field · park factor 100

🌤️ 69°F · 💨 14 mph N · ☔ 0% · Mostly clear

50%

NRFI lean

50%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 49% NRFI (no proven edge)

Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 49% NRFI.

Gerrit Cole (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 27% over 11 starts (league ~27%).
Anthony Kay (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 34% over 19 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: New York Yankees score in the 1st 21% of games (n=25), Chicago White Sox 31% (n=25).

Rockies @ Padres NO EDGE

📍 Petco Park · park factor 96

🌤️ 74°F · 💨 6 mph SW · ☔ 0% · Mostly clear

45%

NRFI lean

55%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 48% NRFI (no proven edge)

Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 48% NRFI.

Michael Lorenzen (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 36% over 21 starts (league ~27%).
Michael King (home SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 17% over 21 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Colorado Rockies score in the 1st 44% of games (n=25), San Diego Padres 28% (n=25).
Pitcher-friendly park (factor 96) nudges toward NRFI.

Rangers @ Rays YRFI LEAN

📍 Tropicana Field · park factor 96

🏟️ Indoor · roof closed (weather not a factor)

45%

NRFI lean

55%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 48% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (55% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 48% NRFI.

⚠️ TBD (away SP): no starts logged yet — using league average (~27%). Low confidence.
Griffin Jax (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 26% over 16 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Texas Rangers score in the 1st 44% of games (n=25), Tampa Bay Rays 25% (n=25).
Pitcher-friendly park (factor 96) nudges toward NRFI.

Guardians @ Reds YRFI LEAN

📍 Great American Ball Park · park factor 106

☀️ 85°F · 💨 10 mph NW · ☔ 0% · Clear

44%

NRFI lean

56%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 48% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (56% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 48% NRFI.

Gavin Williams (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 25% over 21 starts (league ~27%).
Brady Singer (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 41% over 20 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Cleveland Guardians score in the 1st 22% of games (n=24), Cincinnati Reds 32% (n=24).
Hitter-friendly park (factor 106) nudges toward YRFI.

Cubs @ Cardinals YRFI LEAN

📍 Busch Stadium · park factor 100

☁️ 94°F · 💨 9 mph NE · ☔ 3% · Overcast

42%

NRFI lean

58%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 48% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (58% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 48% NRFI.

Colin Rea (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 24% over 17 starts (league ~27%).
⚠️ TBD (home SP): no starts logged yet — using league average (~27%). Low confidence.
1st-inning offense: Chicago Cubs score in the 1st 34% of games (n=25), St. Louis Cardinals 37% (n=25).

Blue Jays @ Nationals YRFI LEAN

📍 Nationals Park · park factor 100

☁️ 85°F · 💨 11 mph S · ☔ 30% · Overcast

34%

NRFI lean

66%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 46% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (66% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 46% NRFI.

Shane Bieber (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 38% over 6 starts (league ~27%).
Cade Cavalli (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 27% over 22 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Toronto Blue Jays score in the 1st 25% of games (n=25), Washington Nationals 41% (n=25).

Orioles @ Tigers YRFI LEAN

📍 Comerica Park · park factor 97

☀️ 77°F · 💨 15 mph N · ☔ 0% · Clear

29%

NRFI lean

71%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 45% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (71% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 45% NRFI.

Dean Kremer (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 47% over 6 starts (league ~27%).
Troy Melton (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 35% over 10 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Baltimore Orioles score in the 1st 28% of games (n=25), Detroit Tigers 34% (n=25).
Pitcher-friendly park (factor 97) nudges toward NRFI.

Royals @ Twins YRFI LEAN

📍 Target Field · park factor 100

☁️ 90°F · 💨 3 mph SE · ☔ 1% · Overcast

22%

NRFI lean

78%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 43% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (78% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 43% NRFI.

Seth Lugo (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 43% over 21 starts (league ~27%).
Taj Bradley (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 37% over 20 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Kansas City Royals score in the 1st 34% of games (n=25), Minnesota Twins 41% (n=25).

Read this: the big % are the raw model lean (ranking only). Out-of-sample backtesting shows these are over-confident — the calibrated estimate (≈50%) is honest, and the model does not beat a typical NRFI price. Research screen, not betting advice. ⚠️ = low sample.

📈 Hot Hitters — Active Streaks

11 on a 6+ game streak

Streak	Player	Pos	Team	Opponent	Home/Away
🔥 12	Hao-Yu Lee	2B	Tigers	Orioles	Home
🔥 9	Tyler Soderstrom	LF	Athletics	Red Sox	Home
🔥 8	Joc Pederson	DH	Rangers	Rays	Away
🔥 8	Andruw Monasterio	SS	Red Sox	Athletics	Away
🔥 8	Luis Rengifo	3B	Padres	Rockies	Home
🔥 7	Ezequiel Duran	SS	Rangers	Rays	Away
🔥 7	CJ Abrams	SS	Nationals	Blue Jays	Home
🔥 7	Nick Loftin	3B	Royals	Twins	Away
🔥 7	Pedro Ramírez	3B	Cubs	Cardinals	Away
🔥 6	Nick Fortes	C	Rays	Rangers	Home
🔥 6	Drake Baldwin	C	Braves	Mets	Away

Current consecutive games with a hit (a no-at-bat game doesn't break a streak). Only players in today's projected lineups appear. A streak is a momentum signal, not a guarantee.

📊 Track Record — Daily Log & Calibration

Date	Logged	SO O/U-5.5	SO MAE	Hits top-6	NRFI leans
2026-07-27	✓ pre-game	0%	2.5	1/1	1/1
2026-07-25	✓ pre-game	69%	2.02	3/6	7/15
2026-07-24	✓ pre-game	86%	2.18	4/5	7/15
2026-07-22	✓ pre-game	68%	1.56	6/6	8/17
2026-07-21	✓ pre-game	79%	1.63	5/6	9/15
2026-07-20	✓ pre-game	70%	1.53	5/6	6/15
2026-07-18	✓ pre-game	73%	1.5	5/6	12/16
2026-07-17	✓ pre-game	70%	1.76	6/6	9/15
2026-07-16	✓ pre-game	50%	1.12	3/6	0/1
2026-07-12	✓ pre-game	87%	1.72	4/6	8/15
2026-07-10	✓ pre-game	76%	1.96	4/6	9/15
2026-07-09	~ backfilled	90%	1.48	4/5	6/10
2026-07-08	~ backfilled	73%	1.59	4/6	9/15
2026-07-07	~ backfilled	91%	1.77	6/6	11/16
2026-07-06	~ backfilled	62%	1.74	5/6	3/8
2026-07-05	~ backfilled	63%	1.74	4/6	12/15
2026-07-04	~ backfilled	67%	1.67	6/6	11/15
2026-07-03	~ backfilled	69%	1.66	6/6	8/13
2026-07-02	~ backfilled	78%	2.09	3/6	6/9
2026-07-01	~ backfilled	63%	1.6	3/6	9/14
2026-06-30	~ backfilled	70%	1.99	4/6	10/15
2026-06-29	✓ pre-game	75%	1.51	3/6	6/13
2026-06-28	✓ pre-game	70%	1.69	3/6	10/15
2026-06-27	✓ pre-game	80%	1.79	3/5	5/15
2026-06-26	✓ pre-game	66%	1.61	4/6	10/15
2026-06-25	✓ pre-game	65%	1.89	6/6	5/9
2026-06-24	✓ pre-game	81%	1.71	3/6	4/16
2026-06-23	✓ pre-game	52%	1.87	4/6	8/15
2026-06-22	✓ pre-game	75%	1.83	3/6	3/13
2026-06-21	✓ pre-game	67%	1.79	5/6	10/14
2026-06-20	✓ pre-game	64%	1.62	5/6	10/14
2026-06-19	✓ pre-game	74%	2.31	3/5	7/14
2026-06-18	✓ pre-game	69%	1.56	6/6	7/8
2026-06-17	✓ pre-game	79%	1.78	4/6	9/15
2026-06-15	✓ pre-game	76%	2.12	2/5	3/10
2026-06-14	✓ pre-game	82%	2.13	3/6	9/14
2026-06-13	✓ pre-game	67%	1.32	5/6	7/15
2026-06-12	✓ pre-game	55%	2.34	4/6	10/15
2026-06-11	✓ pre-game	86%	1.39	4/5	4/7
2026-06-10	✓ pre-game	71%	1.85	5/5	3/15
2026-06-09	~ backfilled	73%	1.37	5/6	12/15
2026-06-08	~ backfilled	56%	1.64	3/6	7/7
2026-06-07	~ backfilled	63%	1.55	6/6	6/15
2026-06-06	~ backfilled	68%	1.51	5/6	10/14
2026-06-05	~ backfilled	73%	1.58	6/6	10/15
2026-06-04	~ backfilled	83%	1.38	5/6	8/9
2026-06-03	~ backfilled	80%	1.29	5/6	10/15

✓ = predictions locked in BEFORE games (trustworthy). ~ = backfilled from current stats (optimistic — ignore for judging accuracy). Strikeouts is the validated model; NRFI is ~a coin flip. Not betting advice.

🎯 Calibration — does our % match reality?

Every graded pick bucketed by its predicted probability.

Player Hits — P(hit) (6023 graded)

Predicted band	n	Model says	Actually hit	Gap
0-50%	75	48%	51%	-3 ok
50-60%	1474	57%	56%	+1 ok
60-70%	2782	65%	61%	+4 ok
70-80%	1417	74%	64%	+10 overconfident
80-90%	273	83%	68%	+15 overconfident
90-101%	2	thin sample

Strikeouts — P(over 5.5) (758 graded)

Predicted band	n	Model says	Actually went over	Gap
0-50%	591	30%	28%	+3 ok
50-60%	91	55%	62%	-7 underconfident
60-70%	50	64%	80%	-16 underconfident
70-80%	18	74%	78%	-4 ok
80-90%	8	83%	100%	-17 underconfident
90-101%	0	thin sample

Read this: if the model is calibrated, 'Model says' ≈ 'Actually'. Overconfident = we claimed more than we delivered (shrink those probabilities). Underconfident = we delivered more than we claimed. Hits ran overconfident historically (Platt calibration was applied 2026-06-28; older logged picks here are pre-calibration). Strikeout overs run underconfident — the overs hit more than stated. Recalibration: hits → keep the Platt shrink and refit weekly on post-6/28 logs only; strikeouts → the o5.5 probabilities can be nudged UP (or fit a Platt correction on P(over)).