⚾ MLB — All Models

✔ UPDATEDSep 11, 2026 at 3:01 PM CTfresh lines, lineups & odds

💰 +EV 🎯 Best Bets 🏏 Hits 🔥 Strikeouts ⚾ NRFI 📈 Hot Hitters 🔥 Hot Bats 📊 Accuracy

💵 How we're doing — profit, not just hit rate

A pro is graded on return and on beating the closing line (CLV), not on how often a pick wins. Here is the real scoreboard.

Accuracy

76%

373-117 · 490 bets

ROI

-2%

-3.2u · 188 priced

Beat the close

64%

avg +1.1% CLV · 174 bets

Why three numbers, not one: accuracy alone can mislead — a 76% record profits at -110 but LOSES at -400. ROI is the real profit at the prices we actually posted; CLV (did we beat the closing line?) is the honest leading indicator of edge — beating the close >55% predicts profit even through short-run variance. ROI & CLV fill in as we log each pick's odds; we show them even when they're unflattering.

How we make these predictions. Every MLB pick comes from a model, then is checked against the market so it stays honest.

• Hits (and runs / RBIs): we start from the batter-versus-pitcher matchup (a Log5 calculation of the hitter's rate against this specific pitcher), then adjust for the things that actually move a hit: the ballpark, the opposing starter, the weather (wind and air), platoon splits (lefty/righty), recent form, and Statcast expected batting average (xBA, quality of contact). We then anchor the number partway to the sportsbook's posted price, so a hot model reading never runs away from reality.
• Strikeouts: we project a starter's strikeouts from their strikeout rate and how much the opposing lineup whiffs, then anchor to the DraftKings posted strikeout line and report our probability of the Over.
• NRFI (no run in the first inning): a calibrated probability built from both starting pitchers and the top of each lineup.

Every model is calibrated against real results and graded on profit and closing-line value (did we beat the number the market closed at), not just on how often a pick wins. That scoreboard is right above. Research tool, not betting advice.

💰 +EV Best Bets — 1 to BET, 3 to PASS (priced vs the live market)

✔ +EV — BET 5.0 units

🔥 Parker Messick

SP · Guardians @ Twins · Away

+20.1% EV · Over 4.5 Ks

model 75% · best -165 @ fanatics · edge +12.5pts

✘ NOT +EV — PASS (price too juiced)

🔥 Chris Sale

SP · Braves vs Phillies · Home

-0.9% EV · Over 5.5 Ks

model 76% · best -320 @ fanatics · edge -0.7pts

✘ NOT +EV — PASS (price too juiced)

🔥 Nolan McLean

SP · Mets @ Yankees · Away

-1.4% EV · Over 4.5 Ks

model 79% · best -397 @ draftkings · edge -1.1pts

✘ NOT +EV — PASS (price too juiced)

🔥 Cade Cavalli

SP · Nationals vs Angels · Home

-5.8% EV · Over 4.5 Ks

model 80% · best -550 @ betmgm · edge -4.9pts

How to read this: every Best Bet is priced against the live market and labeled in plain words. A pick marked ✔ +EV — BET is a profitable play long-term (our number beats the price you can actually bet). A pick marked ✘ NOT +EV — PASS means the model likes it but the price is too juiced to profit, so skip it. The EV% figure is the same signal: a plus number means bet, a minus number means pass. Stakes are ¼-Kelly, capped at 5% of bankroll for the day. Odds are the best available across US books. Research tool, not betting advice.

Market-anchored: hit probabilities are blended 70% toward the devigged two-way "to record a hit" line, so picks track the sharp market and our model only tilts it. Strikeouts stay purely model-based (no two-way line to devig). Anchored cards show the blend: our % = model % + market %.

🎯 Best Bets — highest-confidence picks (graded daily; target 75%)

🔥 Cade Cavalli

SP · Nationals vs Angels · Home

80% Over 4.5 Ks

strong 28% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 25%; ~6.7 K over ~22 batters.

🔥 Nolan McLean

SP · Mets @ Yankees · Away

79% Over 4.5 Ks

strong 27% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 25%; ~6.6 K over ~24 batters.

🔥 Chris Sale

SP · Braves vs Phillies · Home

76% Over 5.5 Ks

elite 31% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 22%; ~7.5 K over ~24 batters.

🔥 Parker Messick

SP · Guardians @ Twins · Away

75% Over 4.5 Ks

strong 26% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 22%; ~6.3 K over ~24 batters.

🎰 Suggested Parlays — each across different games (combined odds; parlays are higher-risk)

Hit Parlay A

🏏 Brett Bateman Blue Jays vs Orioles · Home · 68%

🏏 Kevin McGonigle Tigers vs Rockies · Home · 68%

🏏 Bobby Witt Jr. Royals @ Red Sox · Away · 68%

all 3 hit: ~32%

Hit Parlay B

🏏 Nathan Lukes Blue Jays vs Orioles · Home · 67%

🏏 Gleyber Torres Tigers vs Rockies · Home · 67%

🏏 Jordan Walker Cardinals vs White Sox · Home · 67%

all 3 hit: ~30%

Hit Parlay C

🏏 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Blue Jays vs Orioles · Home · 67%

🏏 Jake McCarthy Rockies @ Tigers · Away · 67%

🏏 Roman Anthony Red Sox vs Royals · Home · 67%

all 3 hit: ~30%

Strikeout Parlay

🔥 Nolan McLean Mets @ Yankees · Away · Over 4.5 Ks · 79%

🔥 Chris Sale Braves vs Phillies · Home · Over 5.5 Ks · 75%

🔥 Parker Messick Guardians @ Twins · Away · Over 4.5 Ks · 75%

all 3 over: ~44%

📊 How accurate has the model been? (graded vs actual results)

Last game · 2026-09-10 ✓

🎯 Best Bets: 50% 1/2

🔥 Strikeouts O/U-5.5: 80%

🏏 Hits top-6: 83% 5/6

⚾ NRFI leans: 60% 3/5

Last 5 graded days

🎯 Best Bets: 68% 13/19

🔥 Strikeouts O/U-5.5: 69% 121 starts

🏏 Hits top-6: 83% 24/29

⚾ NRFI leans: 61% 37/61

⭐ Top 5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (combined prop)

1. James Wood

RF · Nationals vs Angels · Home · slot 1

3.01 proj H+R+RBI

over 1.5: 80% · H 1.30 / R 0.97 / RBI 0.73

.266 hitter batting leadoff, facing a 23%-K starter.

2. Randal Grichuk

LF · White Sox @ Cardinals · Away · slot 2

3.00 proj H+R+RBI

over 1.5: 80% · H 1.61 / R 0.67 / RBI 0.72

.283 hitter batting 2nd in the order, facing a 23%-K starter; favorable platoon vs LHP, hot lately.

3. Jackson Chourio

LF · Brewers vs Reds · Home · slot 1

3.00 proj H+R+RBI

over 1.5: 80% · H 1.55 / R 0.80 / RBI 0.64

.290 hitter batting leadoff, facing a contact-prone starter (19% K) — lots of balls in play; hot lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

4. Jake McCarthy

LF · Rockies @ Tigers · Away · slot 1

2.98 proj H+R+RBI

over 1.5: 80% · H 1.59 / R 0.67 / RBI 0.72

.293 hitter batting leadoff, facing a contact-prone starter (18% K) — lots of balls in play; hot lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

5. Andrés Chaparro

DH · Nationals vs Angels · Home · slot 2

2.90 proj H+R+RBI

over 1.5: 79% · H 1.23 / R 0.79 / RBI 0.87

.253 hitter batting 2nd in the order, facing a 23%-K starter; hot lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

⭐ Top 6 hit picks to prioritize

1. Jackson Chourio

LF · Brewers vs Reds · Home · slot 1 · 0.290 AVG · vs SP 19%K 🟢contact

71% to get a hit

.290 hitter batting leadoff, facing a contact-prone starter (19% K) — lots of balls in play; hot lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

2. Randy Arozarena

LF · Mariners @ Athletics · Away · slot 2 · 0.272 AVG · vs SP 19%K 🟢contact

70% to get a hit

.272 hitter batting 2nd in the order, facing a contact-prone starter (19% K) — lots of balls in play; favorable platoon vs LHP, hot lately.

3. Henry Bolte

LF · Athletics vs Mariners · Home · slot 1 · 0.277 AVG · vs SP 20%K 🟢contact

70% to get a hit

.277 hitter batting leadoff, facing a 20%-K starter; hot lately, outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

4. Brett Bateman

CF · Blue Jays vs Orioles · Home · slot 1 · 0.327 AVG · vs SP 17%K 🟢contact

68% to get a hit

.327 hitter batting leadoff, facing a contact-prone starter (17% K) — lots of balls in play; outhitting his xBA (regression risk).

5. Kevin McGonigle

3B · Tigers vs Rockies · Home · slot 1 · 0.273 AVG · vs SP 24%K

68% to get a hit

.273 hitter batting leadoff, facing a 24%-K starter; favorable platoon vs RHP, hot lately.

6. Mookie Betts

SS · Dodgers @ Marlins · Away · slot 3 · 0.249 AVG · vs SP 20%K 🟢contact

68% to get a hit

.249 hitter batting 3rd in the order, facing a 20%-K starter; hot lately, xBA says he's due (unlucky).

⭐ Top 6 strikeout plays

1. Chris Sale

SP · Braves vs Phillies · Home · K 31% vs oppK 22%

7.5 proj K

over 5.5: 75% · over 4.5: 87%

elite 31% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 22%; ~7.5 K over ~24 batters.

2. Cade Cavalli

SP · Nationals vs Angels · Home · K 28% vs oppK 25%

6.7 proj K

over 5.5: 66% · over 4.5: 80%

strong 28% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 25%; ~6.7 K over ~22 batters.

3. Nolan McLean

SP · Mets @ Yankees · Away · K 27% vs oppK 25%

6.6 proj K

over 5.5: 65% · over 4.5: 79%

strong 27% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 25%; ~6.6 K over ~24 batters.

4. Parker Messick

SP · Guardians @ Twins · Away · K 26% vs oppK 22%

6.3 proj K

over 5.5: 60% · over 4.5: 75%

strong 26% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 22%; ~6.3 K over ~24 batters.

5. Taj Bradley

SP · Twins vs Guardians · Home · K 27% vs oppK 21%

5.7 proj K

over 5.5: 51% · over 4.5: 68%

strong 27% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 21%; ~5.7 K over ~24 batters.

6. Carlos Rodón

SP · Yankees vs Mets · Home · K 26% vs oppK 23%

5.7 proj K

over 5.5: 50% · over 4.5: 67%

strong 26% K-rate vs a lineup that whiffs 23%; ~5.7 K over ~21 batters.

🏏 Batting Props — Hits / Runs / RBIs

269 batters

#	Player	Pos	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Slot	AVG	opp SP K%	P(hit)	exp R	exp RBI	H+R+RBI	o1.5
1	Jackson Chourio	LF	Brewers	Reds	Home	1	0.290 L5 0.409	19%	71%	0.80	0.64	3.00 L5 4.40	80%
2	Randy Arozarena	LF	Mariners	Athletics	Away	2	0.272 L5 0.312	19%	70%	0.81	0.59	2.89 L5 1.60	78%
3	Henry Bolte	LF	Athletics	Mariners	Home	1	0.277 L5 0.333	20%	70%	0.61	0.45	2.55 L5 2.60	72%
4	Brett Bateman	CF	Blue Jays	Orioles	Home	1	0.327 L5 0.316	17%	68%	0.64	0.39	2.63 L5 1.20	74%
5	Kevin McGonigle	3B	Tigers	Rockies	Home	1	0.273 L5 0.316	24%	68%	0.76	0.54	2.70 L5 2.60	75%
6	Mookie Betts	SS	Dodgers	Marlins	Away	3	0.249 L5 0.400	20%	68%	0.64	0.63	2.72 L5 4.40	75%
7	Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	Royals	Red Sox	Away	2	0.282 L5 0.250	22%	68%	0.75	0.50	2.52 L5 2.60	72%
8	Nathan Lukes	RF	Blue Jays	Orioles	Home	5	0.274 L5 0.444	17%	67%	0.50	0.43	2.50 L5 2.40	71%
9	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	Blue Jays	Orioles	Home	3	0.260 L5 0.200	17%	67%	0.61	0.49	2.47 L5 1.20	71%
10	Gabriel Moreno	PH	D-backs	Rangers	Home	1	0.299 L5 0.300	24%	67%	0.66	0.76	2.65 L5 1.80	74%
11	Gleyber Torres	DH	Tigers	Rockies	Home	2	0.270 L5 0.381	24%	67%	0.73	0.52	2.64 L5 3.00	74%
12	Jordan Walker	RF	Cardinals	White Sox	Home	3	0.281 L5 0.056	19%	67%	0.71	0.78	2.73 L5 0.40	76%
13	Ketel Marte	DH	D-backs	Rangers	Home	2	0.251 L5 0.238	24%	67%	0.63	0.63	2.53 L5 2.40	72%
14	Jake McCarthy	LF	Rockies	Tigers	Away	1	0.293 L5 0.381	18%	67%	0.67	0.72	2.98 L5 3.20	80%
15	Oneil Cruz	CF	Pirates	Cubs	Away	2	0.277 L5 0.444	24%	67%	0.76	0.84	2.93 L5 3.00	79%
16	Roman Anthony	LF	Red Sox	Royals	Home	1	0.236 L5 0.091	18%	67%	0.57	0.35	2.26 L5 1.20	66%
17	Drake Baldwin	DH	Braves	Phillies	Home	1	0.276 L5 0.250	24%	67%	0.72	0.67	2.75 L5 2.00	76%
18	Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Braves	Phillies	Home	2	0.250 L5 0.222	24%	66%	0.67	0.58	2.46 L5 2.00	70%
19	George Springer	DH	Blue Jays	Orioles	Home	2	0.246 L5 0.125	17%	66%	0.58	0.53	2.41 L5 1.00	69%
20	Wilyer Abreu	RF	Red Sox	Royals	Home	4	0.256 L5 0.188	18%	66%	0.62	0.56	2.37 L5 1.00	69%
21	Mickey Gasper	DH	Red Sox	Royals	Home	2	0.264 L5 0.133	18%	66%	0.63	0.61	2.68 L5 1.00	75%
22	Alejandro Kirk	C	Blue Jays	Orioles	Home	4	0.276 L5 0.333	17%	66%	0.41	0.64	2.48 L5 2.80	71%
23	Michael Harris II	CF	Braves	Phillies	Home	4	0.286 L5 0.118	24%	66%	0.55	0.64	2.35 L5 0.40	68%
24	Chase Meidroth	2B	White Sox	Cardinals	Away	1	0.267 L5 0.133	23%	66%	0.69	0.47	2.46 L5 0.80	71%
25	Adley Rutschman	C	Red Sox	Royals	Home	3	0.237 L5 0.200	18%	66%	0.55	0.76	2.67 L5 2.60	75%
26	José Fermín	3B	Cardinals	White Sox	Home	1	0.242 L5 0.300	19%	66%	0.49	0.60	2.54 L5 1.80	72%
27	Steven Kwan	CF	Guardians	Twins	Away	1	0.275 L5 0.318	26%	66%	0.69	0.29	2.18 L5 2.20	64%
28	Fernando Tatis Jr.	2B	Padres	Giants	Away	1	0.284 L5 0.368	21%	66%	0.68	0.59	2.55 L5 2.60	72%
29	James Wood	RF	Nationals	Angels	Home	1	0.266 L5 0.235	23%	66%	0.97	0.73	3.01 L5 1.00	80%
30	Geraldo Perdomo	SS	D-backs	Rangers	Home	3	0.250 L5 0.214	24%	66%	0.57	0.45	2.09 L5 1.40	62%
31	Jackson Merrill	CF	Padres	Giants	Away	5	0.245 L5 0.389	21%	65%	0.56	0.59	2.14 L5 3.60	63%
32	Iván Herrera	DH	Cardinals	White Sox	Home	2	0.249 L5 0.364	19%	65%	0.73	0.53	2.65 L5 3.40	74%
33	Riley Greene	LF	Tigers	Rockies	Home	4	0.275 L5 0.474	24%	65%	0.66	0.61	2.61 L5 4.40	73%
34	Zack Gelof	3B	Athletics	Mariners	Home	3	0.251 L5 0.105	20%	65%	0.82	0.58	2.50 L5 1.60	71%
35	Trevor Story	SS	Red Sox	Royals	Home	5	0.233 L5 0.286	18%	65%	0.43	0.48	2.18 L5 1.80	64%
36	Eliezer Alfonzo	DH	Dodgers	Marlins	Away	2	0.179 L5 0.214	20%	65%	0.55	0.61	2.43 L5 1.60	70%
37	Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	Cubs	Pirates	Home	1	0.280 L5 0.294	23%	65%	0.88	0.78	2.92 L5 2.80	79%
38	Manny Machado	3B	Padres	Giants	Away	3	0.224 L5 0.375	21%	65%	0.64	0.67	2.33 L5 3.60	68%
39	Dominic Canzone	DH	Mariners	Athletics	Away	3	0.254 L5 0.238	19%	65%	0.55	0.69	2.47 L5 2.00	71%
40	Nico Hoerner	SS	Cubs	Pirates	Home	6	0.268 L5 0.316	23%	65%	0.42	0.47	2.10 L5 2.00	62%
41	Chase DeLauter	RF	Guardians	Twins	Away	2	0.296 L5 0.421	26%	65%	0.58	0.62	2.36 L5 2.40	68%
42	William Contreras	C	Brewers	Reds	Home	3	0.271 L5 0.250	19%	65%	0.64	0.65	2.54 L5 3.00	72%
43	Junior Caminero	3B	Rays	Astros	Home	3	0.280 L5 0.278	25%	65%	0.70	0.73	2.50 L5 2.20	71%
44	Cole Young	2B	Mariners	Athletics	Away	7	0.248 L5 0.333	19%	64%	0.51	0.45	2.12 L5 1.60	62%
45	Ezequiel Duran	2B	Rangers	D-backs	Away	3	0.270 L5 0.143	22%	64%	0.60	0.70	2.31 L5 1.20	67%
46	Josh Naylor	1B	Mariners	Athletics	Away	6	0.265 L5 0.167	19%	64%	0.41	0.38	1.98 L5 1.00	59%
47	Mauricio Dubón	SS	Braves	Phillies	Home	5	0.264 L5 0.222	24%	64%	0.49	0.53	2.15 L5 0.80	63%
48	Brady House	3B	Nationals	Angels	Home	3	0.242 L5 0.176	23%	64%	0.59	0.66	2.56 L5 1.40	72%
49	Andrew Vaughn	1B	Brewers	Reds	Home	4	0.309 L5 0.231	19%	64%	0.51	0.64	2.42 L5 0.60	70%
50	Corey Seager	SS	Rangers	D-backs	Away	2	0.227 L5 0.238	22%	64%	0.71	0.57	2.36 L5 2.20	68%
51	Luis García Jr.	1B	Yankees	Mets	Home	4	0.287 L5 0.353	26%	64%	0.59	0.80	2.49 L5 2.40	71%
52	Otto Lopez	SS	Marlins	Dodgers	Home	2	0.303 L5 0.389	22%	64%	0.69	0.53	2.60 L5 3.40	73%
53	Randal Grichuk	LF	White Sox	Cardinals	Away	2	0.283 L5 0.600	23%	64%	0.67	0.72	3.00 L5 1.80	80%
54	Alec Burleson	1B	Cardinals	White Sox	Home	4	0.283 L5 0.333	19%	64%	0.63	0.79	2.63 L5 2.40	74%
55	Dylan Crews	LF	Nationals	Angels	Home	5	0.224 L5 0.368	23%	64%	0.56	0.47	2.37 L5 2.80	68%
56	Pete Alonso	1B	Orioles	Blue Jays	Away	2	0.268 L5 0.312	19%	64%	0.72	0.79	2.87 L5 2.00	78%
57	Sal Stewart	1B	Reds	Brewers	Away	3	0.267 L5 0.294	23%	64%	0.63	0.83	2.67 L5 1.20	75%
58	Yandy Díaz	DH	Rays	Astros	Home	1	0.305 L5 0.273	25%	64%	0.69	0.66	2.53 L5 2.60	72%
59	Tommy White	1B	Athletics	Mariners	Home	5	0.250 L5 0.143	20%	64%	0.48	0.29	1.84 L5 0.80	55%
60	J.P. Crawford	SS	Mariners	Athletics	Away	1	0.219 L5 0.118	19%	64%	0.56	0.46	2.12 L5 0.60	63%

AVG shows the season number and H+R+RBI shows tonight's projection, each with the player's last-5-game average (L5) beneath. A rising L5 means the hitter is hot lately. Projected lineups = each team's most recent batting order; actual lineups can differ. Method note: a Log5 base (batter average vs the starter) adjusted by five capped factors — platoon (the batter's split vs the starter's handedness), ballpark (Coors up, pitcher parks down), recent form (last-10 blended in), weather (warm air helps a little), and Statcast xBA (regress lucky/unlucky averages toward the batter's actual contact quality). Following Baseball Musings (David Pinto), hitters facing LOW-strikeout (contact) pitchers also get a boost — see 'opp SP K%' (lower = better for hitters). H+R+RBI = projected hits+runs+RBIs (o1.5 = P(over 1.5)). Runs & RBIs are noisier than hits. Factors are priors, not yet backtested — research tool, not betting advice.

🔥 Strikeout Projections

28 starters — the most-validated model

#	Pitcher	Pos	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	K%	opp K%	proj K	DK O/U	o4.5	o5.5	o6.5
1	Chris Sale	SP	Braves	Phillies	Home	31%	22%	7.5	7.5 Under · 47% o	87%	75%	62%
2	Cade Cavalli	SP	Nationals	Angels	Home	28%	25%	6.7	7.5 Under · 36% o	80%	66%	50%
3	Nolan McLean	SP	Mets	Yankees	Away	27%	25%	6.6	6.5 Under · 49% o	79%	65%	49%
4	Parker Messick	SP	Guardians	Twins	Away	26%	22%	6.3	5.5 Over · 60% o	75%	60%	44%
5	Taj Bradley	SP	Twins	Guardians	Home	27%	21%	5.7	5.5 Over · 51% o	68%	51%	35%
6	Carlos Rodón	SP	Yankees	Mets	Home	26%	23%	5.7	5.5 Under · 50% o	67%	50%	34%
7	Shota Imanaga	SP	Cubs	Pirates	Home	24%	26%	5.6	5.5 Under · 49% o	66%	49%	34%
8	Matthew Liberatore	SP	Cardinals	White Sox	Home	24%	25%	5.6	5.5 Under · 48% o	65%	48%	32%
9	Aaron Nola	SP	Phillies	Braves	Away	24%	22%	5.5	5.5 Under · 47% o	64%	47%	31%
10	Sonny Gray	SP	Red Sox	Royals	Home	22%	20%	5.4	4.5 Over · 62% o	62%	45%	29%
11	Yusei Kikuchi	SP	Angels	Nationals	Away	23%	24%	5.3	5.5 Under · 44% o	61%	44%	28%
12	Drew Rasmussen	SP	Rays	Astros	Home	26%	22%	5.3	5.5 Under · 43% o	60%	43%	28%
13	Mason Adams	SP	Rockies	Tigers	Away	29%	23%	5.2	3.5 Over · 77% o	60%	43%	27%
14	Dustin May	SP	Brewers	Reds	Home	23%	26%	5.2	5.5 Under · 42% o	60%	42%	27%
15	George Kirby	SP	Mariners	Athletics	Away	20%	22%	5.1	4.5 Over · 58% o	58%	41%	26%
16	Framber Valdez	SP	Tigers	Rockies	Home	17%	25%	5.1	4.5 Over · 58% o	58%	40%	25%
17	Robbie Ray	SP	Padres	Giants	Away	20%	24%	5.0	4.5 Over · 56% o	56%	38%	24%
18	Miguel Ullola	SP	Astros	Rays	Away	37%	19%	4.8	—	51%	34%	20%
19	Jeffrey Springs	SP	Athletics	Mariners	Home	18%	25%	4.6	3.5 Over · 67% o	48%	31%	18%
20	Andrew Abbott	SP	Reds	Brewers	Away	18%	21%	4.5	3.5 Over · 66% o	48%	30%	17%
21	Max Scherzer	SP	Blue Jays	Orioles	Home	18%	24%	4.5	5.5 Under · 30% o	47%	30%	17%
22	MacKenzie Gore	SP	Rangers	D-backs	Away	25%	18%	4.4	4.5 Under · 45% o	45%	28%	16%
23	Anthony Molina	SP	Giants	Padres	Home	20%	22%	4.2	3.5 Over · 60% o	41%	24%	13%
24	Chris Bassitt	SP	Orioles	Blue Jays	Away	16%	19%	4.0	3.5 Over · 56% o	36%	21%	11%
25	Anthony Kay	SP	White Sox	Cardinals	Away	18%	19%	3.9	3.5 Over · 55% o	35%	20%	10%
26	Wilber Dotel	SP	Pirates	Cubs	Away	24%	21%	3.9	—	35%	20%	10%
27	Seth Lugo	SP	Royals	Red Sox	Away	17%	21%	3.8	3.5 Over · 53% o	33%	18%	9%
28	Ryan Gusto	SP	Marlins	Dodgers	Home	19%	21%	3.7	3.5 Over · 50% o	31%	17%	8%

projK = projected strikeouts. DK O/U = DraftKings' actual posted line with our lean (the side our projection favors) and P(over it); this judges us against the number the book really hangs, not a fixed line. o4.5/o5.5/o6.5 = P(over those fixed lines) for reference. Backtested: MAE 1.85 (beats baselines), proj/actual corr 0.39, O/U-5.5 62% — the most reliable model here. Research tool, not betting advice.

⚾ NRFI / YRFI

15 games

🟢 Strongest NRFI lean: LAA @ WSH 73%

🔴 Strongest YRFI lean: SEA @ ATH 72%

Angels @ Nationals NRFI LEAN

📍 Nationals Park · park factor 100

☀️ 82°F · 💨 2 mph NE · ☔ 3% · Clear

73%

NRFI lean

27%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 54% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (73% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 54% NRFI.

Yusei Kikuchi (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 23% over 10 starts (league ~27%).
Cade Cavalli (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 24% over 30 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Los Angeles Angels score in the 1st 25% of games (n=25), Washington Nationals 8% (n=25).

Rangers @ D-backs NRFI LEAN

📍 Chase Field · park factor 101

🏟️ Indoor · roof closed (weather not a factor)

67%

NRFI lean

33%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 52% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (67% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 52% NRFI.

MacKenzie Gore (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 27% over 30 starts (league ~27%).
⚠️ TBD (home SP): no starts logged yet — using league average (~27%). Low confidence.
1st-inning offense: Texas Rangers score in the 1st 21% of games (n=25), Arizona Diamondbacks 15% (n=25).

Dodgers @ Marlins NRFI LEAN

📍 loanDepot park · park factor 100

🏟️ Indoor · roof closed (weather not a factor)

61%

NRFI lean

39%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 51% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (61% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 51% NRFI.

⚠️ TBD (away SP): no starts logged yet — using league average (~27%). Low confidence.
Ryan Gusto (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 22% over 15 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Los Angeles Dodgers score in the 1st 28% of games (n=25), Miami Marlins 21% (n=25).

Rockies @ Tigers NRFI LEAN

📍 Comerica Park · park factor 97

☀️ 75°F · 💨 7 mph E · ☔ 0% · Clear

61%

NRFI lean

39%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 51% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (61% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 51% NRFI.

Mason Adams (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 18% over 3 starts (league ~27%).
Framber Valdez (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 31% over 28 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Colorado Rockies score in the 1st 18% of games (n=25), Detroit Tigers 34% (n=25).
Pitcher-friendly park (factor 97) nudges toward NRFI.

Astros @ Rays NRFI LEAN

📍 Tropicana Field · park factor 96

🏟️ Indoor · roof closed (weather not a factor)

60%

NRFI lean

40%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 51% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (60% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 51% NRFI.

⚠️ Miguel Ullola (away SP): no starts logged yet — using league average (~27%). Low confidence.
Drew Rasmussen (home SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 17% over 27 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Houston Astros score in the 1st 34% of games (n=25), Tampa Bay Rays 25% (n=25).
Pitcher-friendly park (factor 96) nudges toward NRFI.

Phillies @ Braves NRFI LEAN

📍 Truist Park · park factor 100

☁️ 80°F · 💨 13 mph SW · ☔ 26% · Overcast

59%

NRFI lean

41%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 51% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans NRFI (59% raw) — starters keep early runs off the board. Calibrated: 51% NRFI.

Aaron Nola (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 27% over 29 starts (league ~27%).
Chris Sale (home SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 15% over 25 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Philadelphia Phillies score in the 1st 31% of games (n=25), Atlanta Braves 28% (n=25).

White Sox @ Cardinals NO EDGE

📍 Busch Stadium · park factor 100

☁️ 77°F · 💨 3 mph S · ☔ 7% · Overcast

48%

NRFI lean

52%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 49% NRFI (no proven edge)

Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 49% NRFI.

Anthony Kay (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 29% over 27 starts (league ~27%).
Matthew Liberatore (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 34% over 28 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Chicago White Sox score in the 1st 25% of games (n=25), St. Louis Cardinals 28% (n=25).

Mets @ Yankees NO EDGE

📍 Yankee Stadium · park factor 102

☀️ 76°F · 💨 5 mph NW · ☔ 0% · Clear

47%

NRFI lean

53%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 49% NRFI (no proven edge)

Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 49% NRFI.

Nolan McLean (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 28% over 28 starts (league ~27%).
Carlos Rodón (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 30% over 13 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: New York Mets score in the 1st 37% of games (n=25), New York Yankees 18% (n=25).

Pirates @ Cubs NO EDGE

📍 Wrigley Field · park factor 102

☀️ 75°F · 💨 10 mph SE · ☔ 0% · Clear

45%

NRFI lean

55%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 48% NRFI (no proven edge)

Coin flip — no lean. Calibrated: 48% NRFI.

Wilber Dotel (away SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 23% over 1 start (league ~27%).
Shota Imanaga (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 30% over 29 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Pittsburgh Pirates score in the 1st 31% of games (n=25), Chicago Cubs 34% (n=25).

Padres @ Giants YRFI LEAN

📍 Oracle Park · park factor 95

☀️ 62°F · 💨 17 mph W · ☔ 1% · Clear

44%

NRFI lean

56%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 48% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (56% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 48% NRFI.

Robbie Ray (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 17% over 27 starts (league ~27%).
Anthony Molina (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 33% over 2 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: San Diego Padres score in the 1st 28% of games (n=25), San Francisco Giants 50% (n=25).
Pitcher-friendly park (factor 95) nudges toward NRFI.

Guardians @ Twins YRFI LEAN

📍 Target Field · park factor 100

☁️ 78°F · 💨 14 mph S · ☔ 0% · Overcast

33%

NRFI lean

67%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 46% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (67% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 46% NRFI.

Parker Messick (away SP) suppresses 1st-inning runs: 17% over 28 starts (league ~27%).
Taj Bradley (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 40% over 28 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Cleveland Guardians score in the 1st 34% of games (n=25), Minnesota Twins 50% (n=25).

Orioles @ Blue Jays YRFI LEAN

📍 Rogers Centre · park factor 100

🏟️ Indoor · roof closed (weather not a factor)

33%

NRFI lean

67%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 46% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (67% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 46% NRFI.

Chris Bassitt (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 36% over 15 starts (league ~27%).
Max Scherzer (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 48% over 14 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Baltimore Orioles score in the 1st 25% of games (n=25), Toronto Blue Jays 31% (n=25).

Reds @ Brewers YRFI LEAN

📍 American Family Field · park factor 100

🏟️ Indoor · roof closed (weather not a factor)

31%

NRFI lean

69%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 45% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (69% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 45% NRFI.

Andrew Abbott (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 42% over 29 starts (league ~27%).
Dustin May (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 32% over 27 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Cincinnati Reds score in the 1st 28% of games (n=25), Milwaukee Brewers 37% (n=25).

Royals @ Red Sox YRFI LEAN

📍 Fenway Park · park factor 105

☀️ 72°F · 💨 5 mph NW · ☔ 0% · Clear

31%

NRFI lean

69%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 45% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (69% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 45% NRFI.

Seth Lugo (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 47% over 29 starts (league ~27%).
Sonny Gray (home SP) is roughly league-average for 1st-inning runs: 30% over 26 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Kansas City Royals score in the 1st 34% of games (n=25), Boston Red Sox 28% (n=25).
Hitter-friendly park (factor 105) nudges toward YRFI.

Mariners @ Athletics YRFI LEAN

📍 Sutter Health Park · park factor 100

☀️ 85°F · 💨 9 mph SW · ☔ 0% · Clear

28%

NRFI lean

72%

YRFI lean

honest calibrated estimate: 45% NRFI (no proven edge)

Model leans YRFI (72% raw) — early scoring likely. Calibrated: 45% NRFI.

George Kirby (away SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 35% over 27 starts (league ~27%).
Jeffrey Springs (home SP) allows 1st-inning runs: 46% over 26 starts (league ~27%).
1st-inning offense: Seattle Mariners score in the 1st 37% of games (n=25), Athletics 25% (n=25).

Read this: the big % are the raw model lean (ranking only). Out-of-sample backtesting shows these are over-confident — the calibrated estimate (≈50%) is honest, and the model does not beat a typical NRFI price. Research screen, not betting advice. ⚠️ = low sample.

📈 Hot Hitters — Active Streaks

11 on a 6+ game streak

Streak	Player	Pos	Team	Opponent	Home/Away
🔥 10	Javier Sanoja	2B	Marlins	Dodgers	Home
🔥 9	Nathan Church	CF	Cardinals	White Sox	Home
🔥 8	Ketel Marte	DH	D-backs	Rangers	Home
🔥 7	Mike Trout	CF	Angels	Nationals	Away
🔥 7	Iván Herrera	DH	Cardinals	White Sox	Home
🔥 6	Rafael Flores Jr.	C	Pirates	Cubs	Away
🔥 6	A.J. Ewing	CF	Mets	Yankees	Away
🔥 6	John Rave	RF	Royals	Red Sox	Away
🔥 6	Victor Mesa Jr.	PH	Rays	Astros	Home
🔥 6	Bryce Eldridge	1B	Giants	Padres	Home
🔥 6	Shay Whitcomb	2B	Giants	Padres	Home

Current consecutive games with a hit (a no-at-bat game doesn't break a streak). Only players in today's projected lineups appear. A streak is a momentum signal, not a guarantee.

🔥 Hot Bats — .400+ over last 5 games

Hitters mashing lately by recent average (like Caglianone's .450)

L5	Player	Pos	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	AVG	P(hit)
🔥 .600	Randal Grichuk	LF	White Sox	Cardinals	Away	.283	64%
🔥 .556	A.J. Ewing	CF	Mets	Yankees	Away	.252	55%
🔥 .529	Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	Rays	Astros	Home	.247	59%
🔥 .524	Jakob Marsee	CF	Marlins	Dodgers	Home	.224	54%
🔥 .500	Zach Neto	SS	Angels	Nationals	Away	.244	60%
🔥 .474	Riley Greene	LF	Tigers	Rockies	Home	.275	65%
🔥 .474	Elly De La Cruz	SS	Reds	Brewers	Away	.283	63%
🔥 .455	Michael Conforto	DH	Cubs	Pirates	Home	.245	61%
🔥 .444	Nathan Lukes	RF	Blue Jays	Orioles	Home	.274	67%
🔥 .444	Oneil Cruz	CF	Pirates	Cubs	Away	.277	67%
🔥 .444	Lars Nootbaar	RF	D-backs	Rangers	Home	.236	58%
🔥 .438	Travis Bazzana	DH	Guardians	Twins	Away	.243	58%
🔥 .438	Christian Koss	SS	Giants	Padres	Home	.227	55%
🔥 .438	Spencer Jones	CF	Yankees	Mets	Home	.255	55%
🔥 .421	Chase DeLauter	RF	Guardians	Twins	Away	.296	65%
🔥 .421	Rafael Flores Jr.	1B	Pirates	Cubs	Away	.248	62%
🔥 .412	Moisés Ballesteros	C	Angels	Nationals	Away	.220	58%
🔥 .412	Cam Smith	RF	Astros	Rays	Away	.219	53%
🔥 .409	Jackson Chourio	LF	Brewers	Reds	Home	.290	71%
🔥 .400	Mookie Betts	SS	Dodgers	Marlins	Away	.249	68%
🔥 .400	Jared Triolo	3B	Pirates	Cubs	Away	.247	62%
🔥 .400	Edgar Quero	DH	White Sox	Cardinals	Away	.205	60%
🔥 .400	Christopher Morel	1B	Mets	Yankees	Away	.193	48%

L5 = batting average over the last 5 games (the 'hot bat' signal, like Caglianone's .450); AVG = season; P(hit) = model chance of a hit today. Only players in today's projected lineups. Hot stretches regress toward the season number, so a hot bat is a lean, not a lock.

📊 Track Record — Daily Log & Calibration

Date	Logged	SO O/U-5.5	SO MAE	Hits top-6	NRFI leans
2026-09-10	✓ pre-game	80%	2.36	5/6	3/5
2026-09-09	✓ pre-game	87%	1.66	4/5	11/15
2026-09-08	✓ pre-game	66%	1.96	4/6	8/15
2026-09-07	✓ pre-game	59%	1.98	6/6	6/11
2026-09-06	✓ pre-game	60%	1.9	5/6	9/15
2026-09-05	✓ pre-game	67%	1.79	4/6	8/15
2026-09-04	✓ pre-game	72%	1.76	3/6	12/16
2026-09-03	✓ pre-game	83%	1.39	2/6	6/9
2026-09-02	✓ pre-game	69%	1.73	5/6	8/15
2026-09-01	✓ pre-game	73%	1.7	2/6	7/15
2026-08-31	✓ pre-game	73%	1.83	3/6	8/12
2026-08-30	✓ pre-game	57%	1.61	3/5	10/14
2026-08-29	✓ pre-game	72%	1.54	3/5	7/17
2026-08-28	✓ pre-game	79%	1.69	5/6	11/15
2026-08-27	✓ pre-game	64%	1.4	3/5	3/7
2026-08-26	✓ pre-game	73%	1.77	5/6	8/15
2026-08-25	✓ pre-game	70%	1.86	5/6	8/15
2026-08-24	✓ pre-game	45%	1.85	6/6	7/10
2026-08-23	✓ pre-game	77%	1.35	6/6	10/15
2026-08-22	✓ pre-game	70%	1.65	5/6	8/15
2026-08-21	✓ pre-game	62%	1.79	4/6	8/15
2026-08-20	✓ pre-game	72%	1.88	6/6	6/9
2026-08-19	✓ pre-game	63%	2.22	4/6	9/15
2026-08-18	✓ pre-game	67%	1.83	6/6	9/15
2026-08-17	✓ pre-game	82%	1.65	6/6	4/11
2026-08-16	✓ pre-game	67%	1.45	5/6	12/15
2026-08-15	✓ pre-game	74%	1.62	4/6	10/15
2026-08-14	✓ pre-game	74%	1.56	5/5	8/14
2026-08-13	✓ pre-game	56%	2.08	6/6	7/9
2026-08-12	✓ pre-game	67%	1.8	3/6	9/15
2026-08-11	✓ pre-game	77%	1.59	4/6	9/15
2026-08-10	✓ pre-game	65%	1.33	5/6	2/10
2026-08-09	✓ pre-game	87%	1.93	5/6	8/15
2026-08-08	✓ pre-game	79%	1.77	4/6	9/15
2026-08-07	✓ pre-game	80%	2.34	2/6	7/15
2026-08-06	✓ pre-game	86%	1.67	6/6	5/11
2026-08-05	✓ pre-game	70%	2.16	5/6	12/15
2026-08-04	✓ pre-game	60%	1.64	6/6	7/15
2026-08-03	✓ pre-game	81%	1.38	4/5	5/8
2026-08-02	✓ pre-game	63%	1.67	5/6	6/15
2026-08-01	✓ pre-game	48%	2.07	4/6	8/15
2026-07-31	✓ pre-game	69%	1.66	3/6	9/15
2026-07-30	✓ pre-game	68%	1.63	5/6	4/10
2026-07-29	✓ pre-game	75%	1.65	4/6	8/16
2026-07-28	✓ pre-game	69%	1.99	4/6	6/16
2026-07-27	✓ pre-game	75%	1.6	4/6	5/12
2026-07-25	✓ pre-game	69%	2.02	3/6	7/15
2026-07-24	✓ pre-game	86%	2.18	4/5	7/15
2026-07-22	✓ pre-game	68%	1.56	6/6	8/17
2026-07-21	✓ pre-game	79%	1.63	5/6	9/15
2026-07-20	✓ pre-game	70%	1.53	5/6	6/15
2026-07-18	✓ pre-game	73%	1.5	5/6	12/16
2026-07-17	✓ pre-game	70%	1.76	6/6	9/15
2026-07-16	✓ pre-game	50%	1.12	3/6	0/1
2026-07-12	✓ pre-game	87%	1.72	4/6	8/15
2026-07-10	✓ pre-game	76%	1.96	4/6	9/15
2026-07-09	~ backfilled	90%	1.48	4/5	6/10
2026-07-08	~ backfilled	73%	1.59	4/6	9/15
2026-07-07	~ backfilled	91%	1.77	6/6	11/16
2026-07-06	~ backfilled	62%	1.74	5/6	3/8
2026-07-05	~ backfilled	63%	1.74	4/6	12/15
2026-07-04	~ backfilled	67%	1.67	6/6	11/15
2026-07-03	~ backfilled	69%	1.66	6/6	8/13
2026-07-02	~ backfilled	78%	2.09	3/6	6/9
2026-07-01	~ backfilled	63%	1.6	3/6	9/14
2026-06-30	~ backfilled	70%	1.99	4/6	10/15
2026-06-29	✓ pre-game	75%	1.51	3/6	6/13
2026-06-28	✓ pre-game	70%	1.69	3/6	10/15
2026-06-27	✓ pre-game	80%	1.79	3/5	5/15
2026-06-26	✓ pre-game	66%	1.61	4/6	10/15
2026-06-25	✓ pre-game	65%	1.89	6/6	5/9
2026-06-24	✓ pre-game	81%	1.71	3/6	4/16
2026-06-23	✓ pre-game	52%	1.87	4/6	8/15
2026-06-22	✓ pre-game	75%	1.83	3/6	3/13
2026-06-21	✓ pre-game	68%	1.81	5/6	10/15
2026-06-20	✓ pre-game	64%	1.62	5/6	10/14
2026-06-19	✓ pre-game	74%	2.31	3/5	7/14
2026-06-18	✓ pre-game	69%	1.56	6/6	8/9
2026-06-17	✓ pre-game	79%	1.78	4/6	9/15
2026-06-15	✓ pre-game	76%	2.12	2/5	3/10
2026-06-14	✓ pre-game	82%	2.13	3/6	9/15
2026-06-13	✓ pre-game	67%	1.32	5/6	7/15
2026-06-12	✓ pre-game	55%	2.34	4/6	10/15
2026-06-11	✓ pre-game	86%	1.39	5/6	4/8
2026-06-10	✓ pre-game	71%	1.85	5/5	3/15
2026-06-09	~ backfilled	73%	1.37	5/6	12/15
2026-06-08	~ backfilled	56%	1.64	3/6	7/7
2026-06-07	~ backfilled	63%	1.55	6/6	6/15
2026-06-06	~ backfilled	68%	1.51	5/6	10/14
2026-06-05	~ backfilled	73%	1.58	6/6	10/15
2026-06-04	~ backfilled	83%	1.38	5/6	8/9
2026-06-03	~ backfilled	80%	1.29	5/6	10/15

✓ = predictions locked in BEFORE games (trustworthy). ~ = backfilled from current stats (optimistic — ignore for judging accuracy). Strikeouts is the validated model; NRFI is ~a coin flip. Not betting advice.

🎯 Calibration — does our % match reality?

Every graded pick bucketed by its predicted probability.

Player Hits — P(hit) (16551 graded)

Predicted band	n	Model says	Actually hit	Gap
0-50%	397	47%	40%	+8 overconfident
50-60%	6176	56%	55%	+1 ok
60-70%	8028	64%	64%	+1 ok
70-80%	1674	74%	66%	+8 overconfident
80-90%	274	83%	68%	+15 overconfident
90-101%	2	thin sample

Strikeouts — P(over 5.5) (1978 graded)

Predicted band	n	Model says	Actually went over	Gap
0-50%	1532	30%	27%	+3 ok
50-60%	214	54%	57%	-3 ok
60-70%	144	64%	65%	-0 ok
70-80%	68	75%	82%	-8 underconfident
80-90%	20	83%	90%	-7 underconfident
90-101%	0	thin sample

Read this: if the model is calibrated, 'Model says' ≈ 'Actually'. Overconfident = we claimed more than we delivered (shrink those probabilities). Underconfident = we delivered more than we claimed. Hits ran overconfident historically (Platt calibration was applied 2026-06-28; older logged picks here are pre-calibration). Strikeout overs run underconfident — the overs hit more than stated. Recalibration: hits → keep the Platt shrink and refit weekly on post-6/28 logs only; strikeouts → the o5.5 probabilities can be nudged UP (or fit a Platt correction on P(over)).